Is the price boom set to bust?

Current data suggest a gradual tailing off of the house price boom is likely in OECD countries. But there's still room for a sharp decline that could fuel recession and have a serious impact on overstretched banking systems and agency lenders.

Is the long run of house price increases in the OECD over and set for a sharp decline? In the UK and the US, where the boom has been strongest, the debate rolls on. Every week, a report emerges predicting a 30% to 40% fall in prices within a year. Then another says any slowdown will be gentle. Which is correct?

The boom has been strong and synchronized. After discounting general inflation, house prices have risen on average 80% to 100% in several countries over 10 years.

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