The US economy is growing at over 8% a year. Jobs are returning, industrial production is improving and households are still spending. Everybody expects this business cycle to be like those before and they’ve lapped up stocks in the US and Europe, in anticipation.
Despite the rising chorus of optimism, I remain convinced that the consensus will be disappointed on growth. That’s because most of the excesses of the 1990s’ boom were not corrected by the mild recession of 2001.
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