We are in what amounts to a bear market rally. Many analysts and investors don’t see it that way and complacency is back. US corporate earnings in the third quarter of 2002 were up 9%, ahead of analysts’ downward-revised 6% expectations. The Republicans have taken full political control and will cement existing tax cuts and make new ones. And now the Federal Reserve has surprised the market with a big interest rate cut.
In a year’s time, though, I expect equities to be lower than now and government bond prices to be higher.
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