Most analysts agree that a Nigerian bond default is a question of when rather than if.
Certainly, the west African state’s bonds are trading at distressed levels of more than 2,500 basis points over treasuries. But the major oil producer has never had any difficulty coming up with the cash for coupon payments. If Nigeria does default – and it could be some time this year – it will be because it gets no benefit from paying its debts, not because it’s incapable of paying them.
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