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Poll of polls 2000: Deutsche Bank dominates

Deutsche Bank tops our annual poll of polls – by a wide margin – after a consistently impressive run of survey results in 2000, most notably in foreign exchange, where Citigroup was dethroned for the first time in 21 years. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and Citigroup head the rankings for a new category, market rating, which brings together overall returns on equity, assets and employees. The market rating and poll of polls have been combined to produce an implied competitiveness rating, in which Deutsche again pips eight American rivals to top position. But a mediocre score for market rating and mergers elsewhere suggest that the German bank might not have it so easy in 2001.

January 1, 2001

For the second year in succession Deutsche Bank ranks number one in Euromoney’s annual survey of the world’s biggest and best providers of financial services. Mergers&acquisitions advice remains the only conspicuous Achilles heel for a financial group that has added top place in overall underwriting capability to existing strengths in trading of debt, derivatives and currencies.

Citigroup/Salomon Smith Barney climbs three places to second place after increasing its advisory score by over 40%. Deutsche may have won the foreign exchange poll but Citigroup surpasses it as top foreign exchange research team this year. Citigroup/SSB beats both Deutsche and JP Morgan in liability management, and climbs three places to third position in overall underwriting. Equity underwriting remains a relative weakness but Salomon Smith Barney was third most active international bond underwriter in the year ending November 2000.

Goldman Sachs retakes the third place it last held in January 1998, with big scores for M&A and credit research outweighing lower ratings for overall capital raising, EMTNs and euro-commercial paper. Last year, Morgan Stanley topped the underwriting section but drops this time to fifth place, just behind Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney and Goldman Sachs, which, until the end of November 2000, was the most active underwriter of secondary equity offerings. Morgan Stanley narrowly beats Goldman into second place for M&A advisory.

Acquisitions have failed to boost Chase’s overall ranking this year. To a degree this is because of a reweighting of the advisory categories away from equity research, which understates scores for Merrill Lynch, UBS Warburg and Chase Manhattan/Fleming. Nevertheless there are other factors at work here. Chase’s already unspectacular underwriting score fell 30% compared with last year. Merrill topped the advisory category in 2000 and still heads the credit research section. But compared with Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Credit Suisse First Boston this has been a disappointing M&A year for Merrill.

Barclays Capital is one of the highest climbers in the top 25. Its underwriting score is 50% up on last year, underpinned by its position as leading arranger and underwriter of euroloans, including Vodafone AirTouch’s hostile acquisition of Mannesmann. A number of firms cited last year as ones to watch have disappointed this year, including Scandinavian banks Svenska Handelsbanken (down 19 places to 53rd) and S-E-Banken (down 13 places to 35th ).

Belgian banking groups move up within range of the top 30: Fortis (34) climbs 31 places, KBC (37) rises 13 places and Dexia (38) has shot up no less than 112 places, thanks to Luxembourg-based Dexia BIL’s trading in EMTNs and euro-commercial paper.

Poll of polls: overall results
Jan Jan     Grand total Underwriting Trading Advising
2001 2000     (out of 1,000) (out of 350) (out of 350) (out of 300)
1 1 Deutsche Bank Germany 745.61 274.77 309 161.84
2 * Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney USA 538.1 161.35 180.2 196.54
3 6 Goldman Sachs USA 445.4 158.9 122.62 163.88
4 2 Merrill Lynch USA 439.75 218.73 120 101.03
5 3 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter USA 415.75 156.3 125.23 134.22
6 ** UBS Warburg USA 351.05 122.29 139.69 89.07
7 7 JP Morgan USA 349.49 92.84 136.08 120.57
8 *** Credit Suisse First Boston USA 339.18 152.11 88.12 98.95
9 *? Chase Manhattan USA 263.88 45.23 132.98 85.67
10 8 ABN Amro Netherlands 254.86 94.42 111.73 48.72
11 15 Barclays Capital UK 164.92 59.14 75.38 30.4
12 ? HSBC Group UK 161.85 37.2 67.41 57.24
13 11 Lehman Brothers USA 155.32 54.27 48.63 52.42
14 13 Dresdner Kleinwort Benson Germany 130.28 49.7 43.61 36.97
15 14 BNP Paribas France 120.97 46.59 51.31 23.07
16 17 Bank of America USA 99.19 14.33 43.38 41.47
17 ?? Royal Bank of Scotland UK 94.08 10.3 66.28 17.5
18 21 Nomura Securities Japan 92.63 45.18 44.55 2.89
19 23 Royal Bank of Canada Canada 68.07 16.63 31.12 20.32
20 20 ING Barings Netherlands 61.08 24.66 23.86 12.56
21 16 Société Générale France 57.4 17.05 26.82 13.53
22 ??? HypoVereinsbank Germany 42.61 28.87 11.06 2.69
23 **?? Mizuho Financial Group Japan 42.14 5 29.2 7.95
24 26 Commerzbank Germany 40.86 14.5 20.66 5.7
25 36 Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Japan 37.71 7.14 22.76 7.81
 
* Citigroup 5, Schroders 40
** Warburg Dillon Read 4, PaineWebber 59
*** Credit Suisse First Boston ranked 10, Donaldson Lufkin&Jenrette 30
*? Chase Manhattan ranked 9, Robert Fleming/Jardine Fleming 25
? HSBC ranked 12, Crédit Commercial de France 78
?? RBS ranked 44, NatWest Group ranked 19
??? HypoVereinsbank 38, Bank Austria Creditanstalt 72
**?? Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank 118, Fuji Bank 125, Industrial Bank of Japan 52


Poll of polls: underwriting
Jan Jan   Total score Capital raising Bonds MTNs ECP Equities
2001 2000 Weighting: 350 100 100 25 25 100
1 2 Deutsche Bank 274.77 100 68.88 25 25 55.89
2 3 Merrill Lynch 218.73 72.37 59.31 16.31 1.1 69.64
3 * Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney 161.35 55.92 54.75 8.06 11.71 30.91
4 4 Goldman Sachs 158.9 23.68 30.38 2.72 14.49 87.63
5 1 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter 156.3 32.89 54.63 9.69 1.4 57.69
6 ** Credit Suisse First Boston 152.11 46.05 38.19 2.94 6.65 58.27
7 *** UBS Warburg 122.29 42.76 48.83 6.65 0.7 23.35
8 9 ABN Amro 94.42 38.82 22.49 6.55 1.41 25.15
9 5 JP Morgan 92.84 37.5 32.73 3.16 1.47 17.98
10 15 Barclays Capital 59.14 33.55 20.03 0.71 4.84 0
11 11 Lehman Brothers 54.27 16.45 18.23 6.47 3 10.12
12 10 Dresdner Kleinwort Benson 49.7 12.5 9.54 0.16 4.77 22.73
13 13 BNP Paribas 46.59 22.37 15.9 1.55 2.69 4.08
14 *? Chase Manhattan 45.23 21.05 16.25 1.02 0 6.9
15 18 Nomura Securities 45.18 21.71 12.49 1.24 0 9.75
16 ? HSBC Group 37.2 17.11 11.19 1.73 0.75 6.43
17 ?? HypoVereinsbank 28.87 13.16 4.04 0 0.5 11.17
18 17 ING Barings 24.66 9.21 4.46 1.3 0.63 9.06
19 16 Société Générale 17.05 9.21 4.28 0.2 1.1 2.25
20 25 Royal Bank of Canada 16.63 6.58 9.18 0.61 0 0.25
21 24 Commerzbank 14.5 4.61 6.33 0.31 0.37 2.88
22 19 Bank of America 14.33 7.24 4.64 0.1 1.47 0.88
23 51 China International Capital Corp 12.16 0 0 0 0 12.16
24 21 Bear Stearns 11.72 5.26 6.17 0 0 0.29
25 49 WestLB 11.18 5.26 4.78 0 0 1.14
 
* Citigroup 6, Schroders 43
** Credit Suisse First Boston ranked 8, Donaldson Lufkin&Jenrette 33
*** Warburg Dillon Read 7, PaineWebber 82
*? Chase Manhattan ranked 12, Robert Fleming/Jardine Fleming 29
? HSBC ranked 14, Crédit Commercial de France 110
?? HypoVereinsbank 34, Bank Austria Creditanstalt 55


Poll of polls: trading
Jan Jan   Total score Eurobonds Govt bonds MTNs ECP Derivatives Forex
2001 2000 Weighting: 350 50 50 40 40 85 85
1 1 Deutsche Bank 309 47.76 50 40 30.4 55.84 85
2 * Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney 180.2 23.44 17.57 27.73 24.69 32.04 54.74
3 ** UBS Warburg 139.69 35.43 13.46 22.44 14.32 19.71 34.33
4 5 JP Morgan 136.08 18.56 27.3 16.61 9.77 37.12 26.71
5 *** Chase Manhattan 132.98 7.74 1.53 9.35 4.79 53.43 56.14
6 8 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter 125.23 32.12 32.59 25.12 5.11 10.82 19.47
7 6 Goldman Sachs 122.62 12.48 20.98 12.37 27.91 19.15 29.74
8 3 Merrill Lynch 120 21.09 20.22 31.17 13.56 11.79 22.17
9 9 ABN Amro 111.73 23.47 35.24 27.96 4.17 9.19 11.69
10 *? Credit Suisse First Boston 88.12 16.55 6.38 17.94 13.94 13.58 19.74
11 16 Barclays Capital 75.38 10.95 11.19 13.9 10.34 14.94 14.06
12 ? HSBC Group 67.41 7.53 4.06 12.53 0.84 10.84 31.62
13 ?? Royal Bank of Scotland 66.28 3.28 12.91 2.5 5.01 21.87 20.71
14 11 BNP Paribas 51.31 5.92 16.09 18.04 2.76 7.13 1.38
15 14 Lehman Brothers 48.63 8.12 6.64 7.58 17.45 0.56 8.29
16 23 Nomura Securities 44.55 4.09 27.86 10.38 0 2.09 0.13
17 19 Dresdner Kleinwort Benson 43.61 11.59 11.14 4.95 10.02 3.65 2.26
18 17 Bank of America 43.38 0.51 0 2.82 7.95 19.47 12.62
19 21 Royal Bank of Canada 31.12 7.07 9.09 0.54 0.03 1.12 13.28
20 ??? Mizuho Financial Group 29.2 2.65 10.41 3.16 0.14 7.93 4.91
21 15 Société Générale 26.82 1.7 9.96 4.47 0.84 5.75 4.09
22 22 ING Barings 23.86 3.56 9.37 2.94 2 1.14 4.84
23 38 Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi 22.76 3.22 9.13 1.49 0.66 5.38 2.87
24 41 Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations/CDC Marchés 22.16 1.77 11.31 6.92 0.88 1.29 0
25 27 Commerzbank 20.66 3.7 4.95 3.5 2.29 3.95 2.28
 
* Citigroup 4, Schroders 59
** Warburg Dillon Read 2, PaineWebber 46
*** Chase Manhattan ranked 7, Robert Fleming/Jardine Fleming 26
*? Credit Suisse First Boston ranked 13, Donaldson Lufkin&Jenrette 88
? HSBC ranked 10, Crédit Commercial de France 96
?? RBS ranked 40, NatWest Group ranked 12,


Poll of polls: advising
Jan Jan   Total score FX research Risk management Credit research M&A
2001 2000 Weighting: 300 75 75 75 75
1 * Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney 196.54 68.74 72.1 21.69 34.01
2 7 Goldman Sachs 163.88 22.56 35.13 40.07 66.12
3 2 Deutsche Bank 161.84 70.44 50.77 32.85 7.79
4 4 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter 134.22 7.37 15.44 40.5 70.91
5 6 JP Morgan 120.57 23.45 50.29 24.87 21.96
6 1 Merrill Lynch 101.03 11.49 14.91 43.53 31.1
7 ** Credit Suisse First Boston 98.95 7.15 8.55 30.19 53.06
8 *** UBS Warburg 89.07 21.19 24.5 12.58 30.8
9 *? Chase Manhattan 85.67 32.62 24.08 5.47 23.51
10 ? HSBC Group 57.24 21.36 25.04 4.96 5.89
11 13 Lehman Brothers 52.42 3.68 2.27 33.83 12.65
12 8 ABN Amro 48.72 14.27 15.34 11.9 7.21
13 14 Bank of America 41.47 21.13 19.46 0.88 0
14 12 Dresdner Kleinwort Benson 36.97 4.15 5.58 15.18 12.05
15 16 Barclays Capital 30.4 4.69 11.14 14.22 0.36
16 29 NM Rothschild 25.98 0 0 0 25.98
17 23 Lazard 24.17 0 0 0 24.17
18 17 BNP Paribas 23.07 1.68 4.82 13.77 2.79
19 25 Royal Bank of Canada 20.32 5.81 3.13 0 11.39
20 ?? Royal Bank of Scotland 17.5 5.87 8.36 2.75 0.53
21 18 Société Générale 13.53 3.93 5.7 0.68 3.22
22 19 ING Barings 12.56 0.67 1.77 0 10.12
23 24 Bear Stearns 10.9 0 2.13 8.53 0.24
24 28 Standard Chartered Bank 8.53 3.34 5.2 0 0
25 84 Toronto Dominion Bank 8.27 1.82 3.86 0.24 2.35
 
* Citigroup 3, Schroders 37
** Credit Suisse First Boston ranked 10, Donaldson Lufkin&Jenrette 22
*** Warburg Dillon Read 5, PaineWebber109
*? Chase Manhattan ranked 9, Robert Fleming/Jardine Fleming 20
? HSBC ranked 11, Crédit Commercial de France 48


Market rating
Jan 2001     Grand total(out of 1000) Price to Book Value Return on Equity % Total Assets % Profit per EmployeeUS$000
        250 250 250 250
1 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter USA 847.5 207 250 232.5 158
2 Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney USA 702.1 231.2 143.4 250 77.5
3 Goldman Sachs USA 693 143.4 221.1 186.4 142.1
4 HSBC Group UK 574.8 250 136.9 164.5 23.4
5 Chase Manhattan USA 537.1 0 182.8 239 115.3
6 JP Morgan USA 495.9 7.2 120.3 118.4 250
7 UBS Warburg* USA 481.7 130.8 158.4 89.9 102.6
8 Merrill Lynch USA 439 136.2 146.5 122.8 33.5
9 Lehman Brothers USA 421.1 9.9 116.8 68 226.4
10 ABN Amro Netherlands 408.8 139.8 201 68 0
 
* Figures for parent group


Competitiveness rating
Jan Jan     Grand total Underwriting Trading Advising Market rating
2001 2000 Weighting   (out of 1,000) (out of 262.5) (out of 262.5) (out of 225) (out of 250)
1 1 Deutsche Bank Germany 636.9 206.1 231.7 121.4 77.6
2 2 Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney USA 579.1 121 135.2 147.4 175.5
3 5 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter USA 523.7 117.2 93.9 100.7 211.9
4 3 Goldman Sachs USA 507.3 119.2 92 122.9 173.3
5 4 Merrill Lynch USA 439.6 164 90 75.8 109.8
6 7 JP Morgan USA 386.1 69.6 102.1 90.4 124
7 6 UBS Warburg USA 383.7 91.7 104.8 66.8 120.4
8 8 Credit Suisse First Boston USA 343.4 114.1 66.1 74.2 89
9 9 Chase Manhattan USA 332.2 33.9 99.7 64.3 134.3
10 10 ABN Amro Netherlands 293.4 70.8 83.8 36.5 102.2

Methodology

The scores for this year’s poll of polls were compiled using league tables and Euromoney surveys from 2000, as outlined below. An extended ranking can be found at www.euromoney.com.

Underwriting

  • Overall capital raising: market users’ votes for best bank at raising capital

  • Bonds: issuers’ and syndicate chiefs’ votes for best lead manager for top bookrunner in 10 categories; bookrunner league table of international bonds (source: Capital Data Bondware)

  • MTNs: borrowers’ votes for EMTN arrangers; EMTN arranger league table (source: Capital Net MTNWare)

  • Euro-commercial paper: users’ votes for ECP arrangers; ECP arranger league table (source: Capital Net CPWare)

  • Equities: borrowers’ and syndicates’ views on global coordination, IPOs, privatizations, secondary offerings and block trades; global coordinator and bookrunner league tables of international equities (source: Capital Data Bondware)


    Trading

  • Eurobonds: chief bond dealers’ votes for Eurobond trading

  • Government bonds: votes for best bank at government bond trading

  • MTNS: borrowers’ nominations for best EMTN dealers; EMTN dealer league table (source: MTNWare)

  • Euro-commercial paper: market users’ views on best ECP dealers; ECP dealer league table (source: Capital Net CPWare)

  • Derivatives: borrowers’ and peers’ views on top banks covering nine categories of interest rate and currency swaps

  • Foreign exchange: corporate treasurers’ and institutional investors’ votes for the top houses by market share

    Advising

  • Forex research: corporate treasurers’ and institutional investors’ nominations for foreign exchange research

  • Risk management: borrowers’ views on risk management

  • Credit research: investors’ votes for best providers of European credit research

  • M&A: worldwide league tables of advisers to target and acquirer companies for announced, pending and completed transactions (source: Thomson Financial IC/BM)

    The poll of polls was compiled using the following Euromoney polls published in 2000: credit research (April), foreign exchange (May), bond trading (May), global financing (September). League tables cover the period from January 1 to November 30 2000.

    The competitiveness rating is compiled from the results for the top 10 ranking financial groups from the poll of polls, reweighted to include equity fundamental data provided by Thomson Financial Datastream for the following variables, latest period reported:

    Return on equity: defined as earned for ordinary/equity capital&reserves less intangibles (%)

    Price to book value: defined as share price/net tangible assets per share

    Return on total assets: defined as earned for ordinary/total assets (%)

    Profit per employee: defined as pre-tax profit/total number of employees

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