A load of crystal balls

The IMF is spoiling to get even with its critics. Stung by claims that it missed signals warning of the Asian crisis, gumshoe economists at the Fund have been checking out the record of private forecasters. The results are not flattering.

Bad forecasts have been the butt of many jokes. “But the fact is,” says Victor Zarnowitz, “you can’t do without them. So how good or how bad forecasts are is a question of great importance.”