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Country Risk rankings March 1999

Country Risk: In search of a safe haven

March 1, 1999

Country Risk: In search of a safe haven

Global Economic projections

Methodology

Country risk
Rank Mar 99 Rank Sept 98 Change Sept-Mar   Total score Political risk Economic performance Debt indicators Debt in default or rescheduled Credit ratings Access to bank finance Access to short-term finance Access to capital markets Discount on forfaiting
      Weighting: 100 25 25 10 10 10 5 5 5 5
1 1 0 Luxembourg 98.48 24.28 25.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.20
2 6 4 Switzerland 98.36 24.88 23.85 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.63
3 8 5 Norway 95.43 23.96 21.90 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.57
4 2 -2 United States 94.92 25.00 20.28 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.64
5 4 -1 Netherlands 94.22 24.51 19.71 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
6 3 -3 Germany 94.04 24.87 19.55 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.62
7 7 0 France 93.68 24.78 19.27 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.62
8 5 -3 Austria 93.30 23.96 19.35 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.99
9 11 2 Denmark 93.24 23.32 20.96 10.00 10.00 9.38 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.59
10 13 3 Belgium 91.18 23.27 18.76 10.00 10.00 9.17 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.99
11 23 12 Japan 90.94 23.81 18.88 10.00 10.00 9.58 5.00 5.00 4.80 3.87
12 12 0 Finland 90.91 22.52 19.22 10.00 10.00 9.58 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.59
13 9 -4 United Kingdom 90.87 24.72 16.52 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.63
14 14 0 Sweden 90.33 22.54 19.24 10.00 10.00 8.96 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.59
15 10 -5 Ireland 90.12 22.66 17.69 10.00 10.00 9.79 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.97
16 15 -1 Canada 90.09 23.48 17.72 10.00 10.00 8.96 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.93
17 21 4 Singapore 88.88 23.41 18.62 10.00 10.00 9.58 5.00 5.00 3.80 3.46
18 19 1 Australia 87.79 21.89 18.02 10.00 10.00 8.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.13
19 18 -1 Italy 87.62 22.52 16.57 10.00 10.00 8.96 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.57
20 17 -3 New Zealand 86.90 21.70 16.20 10.00 10.00 9.06 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.93
21 16 -5 Spain 86.72 22.33 15.63 10.00 10.00 9.17 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.60
22 22 0 Iceland 84.47 20.22 17.30 10.00 10.00 7.81 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.13
23 20 -3 Portugal 84.41 21.91 14.18 10.00 10.00 9.17 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.16
24 114 90 Bermuda 81.49 20.91 19.62 10.00 10.00 8.96 5.00 5.00 2.00 0.00
25 24 -1 Taiwan 79.74 20.38 14.27 10.00 10.00 8.75 5.00 5.00 3.13 3.22
26 32 6 Hong Kong 76.73 18.68 15.75 10.00 10.00 6.88 5.00 4.29 3.30 2.84
27 27 0 Greece 75.87 18.04 13.84 10.00 10.00 5.31 5.00 5.00 5.00 3.67
28 25 -3 Cyprus 75.39 18.00 12.72 10.00 10.00 7.19 5.00 4.29 5.00 3.19
29 28 -1 United Arab Emirates 73.39 17.10 15.26 10.00 10.00 6.88 5.00 4.11 1.70 3.35
30 26 -4 Malta 71.81 19.48 11.74 9.82 10.00 6.88 1.01 4.29 5.00 3.60
31 31 0 Israel 70.62 15.97 12.82 10.00 10.00 6.25 5.00 4.20 3.25 3.13
32 33 1 Slovenia 70.06 16.62 12.07 9.94 10.00 6.46 3.84 3.84 3.90 3.39
33 29 -4 Kuwait 69.43 17.41 10.78 10.00 10.00 6.46 5.00 4.29 2.00 3.50
34 35 1 Qatar 68.76 15.32 13.32 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 4.29 2.33 3.50
35 84 49 Bahamas 68.17 17.95 12.69 10.00 10.00 6.25 5.00 4.29 2.00 0.00
36 34 -2 Saudi Arabia 66.81 16.43 10.06 10.00 10.00 4.38 5.00 4.20 3.33 3.42
37 36 -1 Bahrain 66.41 15.00 12.52 10.00 10.00 3.75 5.00 4.29 2.33 3.53
38 69 31 Brunei 66.20 18.81 15.86 10.00 10.00 0.00 5.00 4.29 2.25 0.00
39 39 0 Hungary 65.75 17.39 10.74 9.51 10.00 5.00 2.80 2.95 4.00 3.35
40 37 -3 Oman 64.40 15.38 9.04 10.00 10.00 4.69 5.00 4.29 2.50 3.50
41 30 -11 Chile 64.31 17.19 9.77 9.32 10.00 6.04 2.66 3.39 2.88 3.05
42 38 -4 Poland 62.06 15.99 10.54 9.56 10.00 4.79 0.37 3.13 4.20 3.49
43 40 -3 Czech Republic 61.96 16.58 9.97 9.65 10.00 5.83 0.50 3.13 3.80 2.50
44 42 -2 South Korea 61.63 15.91 12.03 9.60 10.00 4.17 0.84 4.05 2.75 2.30
45 41 -4 China 56.51 15.32 9.46 9.70 8.36 6.04 0.06 2.32 2.80 2.45
46 77 31 Mauritius 56.38 14.34 4.49 9.50 10.00 5.00 5.00 3.39 2.50 2.16
47 47 0 Mexico 55.18 13.35 9.27 9.46 10.00 3.13 1.27 3.21 3.00 2.49
48 44 -4 Uruguay 54.67 12.38 8.97 9.37 10.00 4.38 0.18 4.11 2.67 2.62
49 54 5 Thailand 54.46 13.49 8.58 9.38 10.00 3.96 1.00 3.04 2.75 2.27
50 51 1 Estonia 54.38 12.52 9.09 9.92 10.00 5.42 0.62 2.46 2.63 1.73
51 43 -8 Tunisia 54.25 14.55 7.59 9.35 10.00 4.38 0.06 3.30 1.67 3.35
52 66 14 Croatia 54.04 11.01 9.42 9.64 10.00 4.38 2.55 2.28 2.60 2.17
53 55 2 Philippines 54.00 13.22 8.57 9.52 10.00 3.75 0.91 3.21 2.88 1.93
54 49 -5 Egypt 53.01 13.83 7.86 9.36 9.85 4.17 0.00 2.92 1.67 3.35
55 48 -7 Argentina 52.90 12.09 9.64 8.42 10.00 2.92 0.81 4.02 2.90 2.10
56 50 -6 South Africa 52.83 12.83 7.51 9.70 10.00 3.75 0.27 3.30 2.67 2.80
57 56 -1 Morocco 52.17 13.20 7.23 9.20 10.00 3.44 0.10 3.13 2.67 3.22
58 53 -5 Malaysia 51.66 12.75 8.49 9.71 10.00 3.96 2.00 3.24 1.50 0.00
59 45 -14 Colombia 51.21 11.44 6.75 9.17 10.00 4.38 1.28 3.21 2.67 2.32
60 59 -1 India 50.90 13.17 7.34 9.22 10.00 3.13 0.19 3.30 1.90 2.65
61 52 -9 Botswana 50.85 15.23 9.13 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 3.39 0.75 2.36
62 57 -5 Latvia 50.67 11.23 8.54 9.93 10.00 5.00 0.20 2.37 1.67 1.73
63 62 -1 Lithuania 50.14 11.81 8.25 9.87 10.00 3.96 0.00 2.28 2.25 1.73
64 71 7 Panama 49.84 9.83 10.42 9.59 10.00 4.38 1.16 3.13 1.33 0.00
65 46 -19 Trinidad & Tobago 48.91 11.91 8.97 9.65 10.00 3.75 0.00 3.13 1.50 0.00
66 58 -8 Slovak Republic 48.33 10.91 8.51 9.54 10.00 3.75 0.53 2.28 2.10 0.71
67 61 -6 Turkey 48.25 11.29 7.90 9.27 10.00 1.67 1.69 3.13 2.25 1.07
68 63 -5 Jordan 47.51 10.56 8.86 9.16 9.22 2.50 0.00 2.32 2.00 2.89
69 68 -1 Lebanon 47.10 9.56 7.05 9.54 10.00 2.29 1.11 2.41 2.50 2.63
70 60 -10 Costa Rica 46.08 11.11 7.86 9.63 10.00 3.44 0.00 3.04 1.00 0.00
71 72 1 Peru 44.08 8.86 7.81 8.57 9.24 2.81 0.75 2.68 1.33 2.02
72 80 8 Fiji 44.00 11.80 9.42 9.93 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.86 0.00 0.00
73 67 -6 El Salvador 43.98 9.55 6.65 9.62 10.00 3.75 0.14 3.27 1.00 0.00
74 97 23 Barbados 43.08 13.73 10.86 0.00 10.00 3.75 0.00 3.75 1.00 0.00
75 79 4 Papua New Guinea 42.15 8.85 7.39 9.52 10.00 1.88 0.87 2.77 0.88 0.00
76 70 -6 Brazil 41.74 8.77 5.96 8.75 9.96 1.46 1.48 3.13 1.30 0.93
77 73 -4 Guatemala 41.19 8.18 7.10 9.51 10.00 3.13 0.00 2.95 0.33 0.00
78 81 3 Kazakhstan 40.68 8.54 6.25 9.75 10.00 2.50 0.81 1.83 1.00 0.00
79 83 4 Sri Lanka 40.58 9.24 6.92 9.44 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.86 2.13 0.00
80 64 -16 Dominican Republic 40.53 9.05 8.26 9.72 9.12 1.88 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00
81 65 -16 Jamaica 40.42 7.93 5.02 9.40 10.00 2.50 0.62 2.95 2.00 0.00
82 76 -6 Venezuela 40.33 7.96 5.93 9.40 10.00 1.88 0.53 2.77 1.88 0.00
83 75 -8 Paraguay 39.36 8.36 5.79 9.77 10.00 1.88 0.12 2.95 0.50 0.00
84 99 15 Syria 38.36 6.53 9.28 8.32 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.37 1.00 1.87
85 78 -7 Bolivia 38.34 7.24 7.27 8.38 8.35 2.19 1.24 2.68 1.00 0.00
86 85 -1 Ghana 37.91 10.28 4.73 8.37 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.53 0.00 2.00
87 93 6 Bulgaria 37.87 6.85 6.30 9.17 10.00 1.46 0.09 1.83 1.50 0.67
88 88 0 Indonesia 36.37 6.52 5.71 9.02 10.00 0.42 2.25 1.96 0.50 0.00
89 82 -7 Romania 36.28 7.76 4.85 9.52 10.00 0.83 0.47 1.83 0.75 0.27
90 95 5 Senegal 36.00 7.72 6.29 8.90 9.91 0.00 0.17 2.68 0.33 0.00
91 89 -2 Iran 35.85 7.13 6.69 9.75 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.98 0.50 0.80
92 87 -5 Vietnam 35.67 7.44 5.54 9.06 9.02 1.88 0.00 2.44 0.30 0.00
93 96 3 Bangladesh 35.42 7.17 6.27 9.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.86 0.13 0.00
94 131 37 Belize 35.07 9.42 – 9.41 10.00 3.13 0.00 2.95 0.17 0.00
95 91 -4 Uganda 34.87 6.85 6.44 8.10 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.41 0.00 1.07
96 101 5 Guyana 34.74 5.75 8.42 8.64 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 0.50 0.00
97 98 1 Kenya 34.53 7.97 5.00 8.99 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.41 0.17 0.00
98 86 -12 Ecuador 34.33 6.61 4.72 8.82 9.88 0.63 0.17 2.86 0.67 0.00
99 94 -5 Gabon 34.15 6.85 7.28 9.28 7.89 0.00 0.00 2.86 0.00 0.00
100 74 -26 St Lucia 34.00 11.06 – 9.97 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.96 1.00 0.00
101 90 -11 Zimbabwe 33.89 6.80 3.72 9.23 10.00 0.00 0.61 3.04 0.50 0.00
102 106 4 Nepal 33.81 6.69 5.05 9.22 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.68 0.17 0.00
103 145 42 Gambia 33.80 5.41 7.76 9.02 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.61 0.00 0.00
104 102 -2 Honduras 33.67 5.84 5.45 8.99 9.35 1.25 0.83 1.79 0.17 0.00
105 112 7 Burkina Faso 33.47 6.02 6.88 8.67 9.98 0.00 0.00 1.79 0.13 0.00
106 116 10 Azerbaijan 33.39 4.88 6.48 9.82 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.55 0.67 0.00
107 150 43 Seychelles 33.35 8.72 – 9.79 10.00 0.00 0.00 3.84 1.00 0.00
108 100 -8 Mali 33.34 6.28 7.33 8.11 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.61 0.00 0.00
109 104 -5 St Vincent & the Grenadines 33.16 10.86 – 9.84 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.96 0.50 0.00
110 128 18 Kyrgyz Republic 32.86 5.41 7.12 9.36 9.91 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.17 0.00
111 125 14 Turkmenistan 32.63 5.18 5.61 8.91 10.00 0.94 0.00 1.83 0.17 0.00
112 140 28 Tonga 32.46 9.95 – 9.64 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.86 0.00 0.00
113 103 -10 Algeria 32.02 6.70 6.56 9.08 7.83 0.00 0.00 1.85 0.00 0.00
114 138 24 Vanuatu 31.93 9.23 – 9.85 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.86 0.00 0.00
115 141 26 Maldives 31.38 8.48 – 9.76 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.77 0.38 0.00
116 139 23 Lesotho 31.05 8.41 – 9.52 10.00 0.00 0.00 3.13 0.00 0.00
117 142 25 Moldova 30.79 3.64 3.71 9.52 10.00 1.25 0.00 1.83 0.83 0.00
118 146 28 Solomon Islands 30.77 8.20 – 9.71 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.86 0.00 0.00
119 122 3 Togo 30.69 4.01 7.35 9.00 9.26 0.00 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.00
120 111 -9 Mongolia 30.65 4.72 5.63 9.29 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.13 0.00
121 92 -29 Côte d’Ivoire 30.63 8.37 6.47 8.36 5.20 0.00 0.20 1.88 0.17 0.00
122 148 26 Western Samoa 30.58 9.26 – 9.35 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.96 0.00 0.00
123 109 -14 Grenada 30.14 7.46 – 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.68 0.00 0.00
124 123 -1 Pakistan 30.11 4.50 5.11 8.82 10.00 0.00 0.38 0.89 0.40 0.00
125 147 22 Swaziland 29.94 7.06 – 9.85 10.00 0.00 0.00 3.04 0.00 0.00
126 118 -8 Ukraine 29.85 3.17 4.05 9.76 10.00 0.63 0.16 1.83 0.25 0.00
127 105 -22 Uzbekistan 29.78 6.23 6.83 9.71 4.80 0.00 0.05 1.83 0.33 0.00
128 132 4 Nigeria 29.72 3.37 4.85 9.25 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.25 1.00 0.00
129 124 -5 Niger 29.69 4.88 5.98 7.70 9.52 0.00 0.00 1.61 0.00 0.00
130 110 -20 Dominica 29.38 7.35 – 9.36 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.68 0.00 0.00
131 129 -2 Malawi 28.75 5.44 3.69 8.36 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.00 0.00
132 107 -25 Yemen 28.55 4.76 7.38 9.43 4.91 0.00 0.00 1.83 0.25 0.00
133 126 -7 Guinea 28.42 3.28 7.06 7.85 9.33 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
134 151 17 Bhutan 28.14 5.69 – 9.66 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 0.00 0.00
135 121 -14 Cameroon 27.86 5.26 5.43 8.25 6.95 0.00 0.06 1.79 0.13 0.00
136 108 -28 Haiti 27.82 2.55 6.46 7.91 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
137 144 7 Belarus 27.69 2.35 3.83 9.95 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.67 0.00
138 149 11 Cape Verde 27.52 5.22 – 9.48 9.66 0.00 0.00 3.04 0.13 0.00
139 170 31 Tajikistan 27.43 4.04 3.52 9.46 9.40 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.13 0.00
140 157 17 Congo 27.10 2.80 5.66 8.26 9.49 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
141 134 -7 Georgia 26.81 3.12 5.89 9.12 6.69 0.00 0.00 1.61 0.38 0.00
142 156 14 Macau 26.03 15.47 – 0.00 0.00 5.63 0.00 3.93 1.00 0.00
143 159 16 Cambodia 25.94 2.03 4.18 8.91 9.93 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
144 115 -29 Benin 25.84 4.54 – 8.73 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.44 0.13 0.00
145 120 -25 Tanzania 25.48 4.25 5.18 7.40 6.96 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.80
146 143 -3 FYR Macedonia 25.33 4.56 8.19 9.40 0.00 0.00 0.16 2.19 0.50 0.33
147 136 -11 Zambia 25.31 2.81 4.61 7.53 9.47 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
148 113 -35 Ethiopia 25.31 4.13 4.46 5.65 9.70 0.00 0.00 1.37 0.00 0.00
149 164 15 Angola 25.22 1.66 4.19 8.73 9.73 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
150 154 4 Mozambique 23.99 3.40 5.20 5.06 9.35 0.00 0.09 0.89 0.00 0.00
151 119 -32 Namibia 23.92 11.73 7.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.86 0.50 1.77
152 152 0 Laos 23.71 5.18 – 7.47 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.17 0.00
153 174 21 Djibouti 23.60 2.78 – 9.39 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 0.00 0.00
154 163 9 Mauritania 23.53 4.07 1.33 7.21 9.86 0.00 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.00
155 160 5 Equatorial Guinea 23.23 2.53 – 9.63 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.00
156 155 -1 Nicaragua 23.20 3.05 2.52 7.06 7.72 1.25 0.00 1.43 0.17 0.00
157 133 -24 Chad 22.85 3.70 – 8.36 9.72 0.00 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.00
158 130 -28 Central African Republic 22.48 3.29 – 8.12 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.00
159 137 -22 Armenia 21.22 2.98 – 9.36 6.82 0.00 0.00 0.89 1.17 0.00
160 169 9 Sudan 20.88 0.61 5.87 3.51 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
161 127 -34 Russia 20.86 3.02 3.67 9.46 2.09 0.31 0.14 1.96 0.20 0.00
162 117 -45 Madagascar 20.14 3.89 4.38 7.58 3.22 0.00 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.00
163 166 3 Guinea-Bissau 20.06 2.57 4.34 2.35 9.91 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
164 171 7 Antigua & Barbuda 19.25 5.64 10.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.50 0.00
165 161 -4 Rwanda 18.96 0.82 – 7.07 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.00
166 153 -13 Myanmar 18.96 4.22 4.44 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.13 0.00
167 135 -32 Albania 17.49 2.94 4.10 9.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.13 0.00
168 165 -3 Democratic Republic of Congo 17.11 0.58 0.00 5.99 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00
169 162 -7 Libya 16.72 6.88 8.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 0.00 0.00
170 158 -12 Sierra Leone 16.54 1.85 0.63 4.54 8.62 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
171 168 -3 Yugoslavia 15.25 0.92 3.83 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00
172 173 1 Somalia 14.54 0.59 3.05 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00
173 172 -1 Liberia 13.50 1.09 1.88 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00
174 167 -7 Surinam 13.37 4.13 8.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.17 0.00
175 176 1 Sao Tome & Principe 13.23 3.21 – 0.00 8.77 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.00 0.00
176 177 1 New Caledonia 12.96 11.53 – 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 0.00 0.00
177 175 -2 Cuba 7.47 1.40 4.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.50 0.00
178 178 0 Iraq 4.65 0.31 3.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00
179 180 1 Afghanistan 2.66 1.41 – 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.00 0.00
180 179 -1 North Korea 1.28 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.13 0.

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