The fear that dares to speak its name

Ask any central banker what is his worst nightmare and he's likely to say one word: Herstatt. Herstatt means gridlock in the world's financial system as hundreds of banks, which yesterday trusted each other to make payments, no longer do. What can shatter that trust? A technical snarl-up, a political shock, or worst of all, the sudden failure of a major bank. By David Shirreff

On October 7 in Florence, the plumbers of the world’s financial markets will attempt heroically to put aside their differences and cooperate. In theory they are all trying to avert the same disaster. In practice, for the last few years, they have been pulling in different directions and pursuing at least five different solutions.

The disaster is Herstatt risk, something the world has come close to only once, in 1974, when Bankhaus Herstatt in Cologne was shut down by the German banking supervisors.

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