Global Economic Projections: US back on top

The US tops Euromoney's country risk ranking for first time since September 1994, achieving maximum points in every section, notably for political risk and economic performance. The country has been climbing steadily in the last few surveys but it seems its growth has peaked, since economists participating in the survey forecast a drop in GNP growth from 3.4% this year to 2.45% in 1998. Other countries marching up the top 10 include the Netherlands at number three, Norway at five and Austria at nine, all of which rank high up in our table of economic projections. The Netherlands' GNP growth is set to rise from 2.91% to 3.06% over the next 12 months and Austria looks forward to a 5.16% rise in economic performance with increased GNP growth of 2.27% in 1998. Among emerging markets, Latin America performs particularly well. Chile scrapes into the top 30 at 29, up three places since last March. The peso has remained steady all year and economic recovery is well underway. Last year's fears of overheating have receded. But the highest climbers in the top 100 are Argentina - up 7 to 52, El Salvador - up 13 to 65, Venezuela - up 9 to 71, Guatemala - up 20 to 73, Honduras - up 14 to 90, and Panama - up 14 to 60. Since January, Panama has received credit ratings from Moody's and Standard & Poor's and has successfully issued its first 144A Eurobond for $500m. Economists foresee all six countries performing significantly better over the next 12 months.