| Real GDP growth forecasts (yoy %), H1’96-H1’98 (previous forecast in brackets) | |||||||
|
H1’96 |
H2’96 |
1996 |
H1’97 |
H2’97 |
1997 |
H1’98 |
US |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 (3.3) |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.1 (4.0) |
2.2 |
Japan |
4.1 |
3.3 |
3.7 (2.4) |
1.5 |
2.0 |
1.8 (3.2) |
2.0 |
Europe |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.7 (1.7) |
2.0 |
1.6 |
1.8 (3.0) |
2.0 |
OECD |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.3 (2.4) |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 (3.4) |
2.1 |
East Asia |
7.7 |
7.2 |
7.5 (8.0) |
6.5 |
6.0 |
6.2 (7.5) |
6.5 |
Latin America |
-2.3 |
4.5 |
1.1 (2.5) |
4.0 |
3.2 |
3.5 (4.0) |
3.5 |
World |
2.5 |
3.1 |
2.8 (3.3) |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.6 (4.3) |
2.7 |
| Source: Independent Strategy | |||||||
Last September in this column, I argued that the industrial economies could be heading for much lower growth than expected in 1997. Now I’m even more convinced that OECD growth will fall short of consensus estimates, which means that central banks will not be raising short-term interest rates until late this year.
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