China’s economy is slowing. Profits at leading state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are stagnating. The mainland’s plodding, unsophisticated banks face an uncertain, troubled future. Many observers, including regulators and leading Communist Party officials, deem grey-market shadow finance to be out of control. How worried should we be?
The first issue first, as it informs so much of what happens across the People’s Republic. Generating hard topline facts on China’s economy has never been easy. Data provided by the official National Bureau of Statistics are trusted by almost nobody.
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