Bond Outlook by bridport & cie, January 19 2011

Struggles are emerging between governments nurturing weak recoveries and central banks wishing to dampen inflation. Bond markets may encourage central banks in raising rates, the BoE first, ECB later.

Bond Outlook

Inflation is climbing and, with it, the pressure on central banks to raise rates. The BoE are likely to tighten first, followed by the ECB. The inflation is “cost-push”, arising from increases in the prices of crude, foodstuffs, steel, and the like. It is strange that the USA is not seeing similar inflationary pressure, especially as the USD has weakened so much, but that may just be a matter of time, as the steepening of the USD yield curve suggests.

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