Research: Banking on England to score goals

It’s a battle of bank research as the FIFA World Cup looms. Both JPMorgan and UBS have put out research notes predicting the winning team based on quantitative analysis. Contrary to the usual bank rhetoric of past performance not being an indicator of future performance, UBS is making its predictions based on just the opposite. The Swiss bank tips the most successful team, Brazil, to be the most likely to win the World Cup 2010, with Germany close behind and Italy (current trophy holder) as third most likely. JPMorgan, however, using mathematical models of market prices, FIFA rankings and historical results, has predicted a far more unlikely outcome of England winning the World Cup, with Spain second and the Netherlands third. According to JPMorgan’s quant team, Spain will knock out complete outsider Slovenia in the semi-finals. The analyst team admits, however, that the probability of their predictions coming true is only 52.5%. Euromoney’s head office in London is clearly rooting for JPMorgan.