Bond Outlook January 6 2010

With so much positive sentiment reflecting the assumption of a “normal” recovery, there is reason for caution. Government borrowing needs will increase interest rates in the USA and UK.

Bond Outlook [by bridport & cie, January 6th 2010]

In these opening days of 2010, there is positive prevailing sentiment in the financial markets, based apparently on optimism that a normal recovery is underway. That would imply expanding demand, increasing output and decreasing unemployment. For the world as a whole, this optimistic mood appears justified, not so however for the USA, UK and Japan, where government indebtedness is a millstone around the neck of the economy.

Unlike many commentators, we cannot see Japan as a “model” for what is to happen in the USA and UK.

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