The material on this site is for financial institutions, professional investors and their professional advisers. It is for information only. Please read our Terms & Conditions, Privacy Policy and Cookies before using this site. Please see our Subscription Terms and Conditions.

All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws. © 2022 Euromoney, a part of the Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.

Asian economies: Black swans 10 years on

Unknown risks – the black swans – could upset the Asian party.

Anniversaries are always a tempting time to reflect on past achievements. This summer will mark 10 years since the start of the Asian financial crisis that started with the run on the Thai baht and spread rapidly across the region’s currencies and economies, wreaking havoc. A decade on and, with the possible exception of Thailand, Asian economies have much to celebrate.

In 1998, the economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand, the countries worst affected by the crisis, shrank by almost 8% on average. The same economies grew at a respectable 5.4% in 2006. Government finances have been strengthened and capital controls mostly removed. The capitalization and regulation of local banks have improved significantly and Asian stock markets are more accessible to foreigners.

Although the picture for Asia seems unremittingly positive, it might be premature to open the champagne. There are several alarming similarities between Asia 10 years ago and now. In the decade before the crisis, the economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand grew on average by 8% a year, according to the IMF.

Rob Subbaraman, regional economist at Lehman Brothers in Hong Kong, estimates that the GDP of Asia ex-Japan will grow by 8% in 2007 and 2008.

You have reached premium content. Please log in to continue reading.

Read beyond the headlines with Euromoney

For over 50 years, our readers have looked to Euromoney to stay informed about the issues that matter in the international banking and financial markets. Find out more about our different levels of access below.


Unlimited access to and

Expert comment, long reads and in-depth analysis interviews with senior finance professionals

Access the results of our market-leading annual surveys across core financial services

Access the results of our annual awards, including the world-renowned Awards for Excellence

Your print copy of Euromoney magazine delivered monthly

£73.75 per month

Billed Annually


Unlimited access to and, including our top stories, long reads, expert analysis, and the results of our annual surveys and awards

Sign up to any of our newsletters, curated by our editors


Already a user?

We use cookies to provide a personalized site experience.
By continuing to use & browse the site you agree to our Privacy Policy.
I agree