A new paradigm or a bubble set to burst?

Improved fundamentals have undoubtedly fuelled the emerging-market debt boom. But that's by no means the whole story. Excess liquidity might be forcing values unjustifiably high, and hedge fund and credit derivative strategies are vulnerable to an overdue yield-curve readjustment.

DESPITE COUNTLESS PREMATURE rumours of a collapse, global emerging markets remain hot. The benchmark indicator for the asset class, the JPMorgan Emerging Bond Market Index (Embi), has been hovering near an all-time high. The Brazilian C bond, which was until recently one of the most liquid emerging-market instruments, has rallied strongly to well above 100 – even though the bond is callable at par, domestic Brazilian investors are skittish about the economy, and the government is now the subject of one of the worst corruption scandals of the decade.

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