The spread between the S&P500 and the Barclays long-term US treasury bond total return indices turned positive in 2012, consistent with trends in other important markets. The transition is likely to continue, supported by an improving global economic outlook.
After an era of deleveraging, sub-par economic growth, financial flare-ups and a global absence of confidence, we are entering an economic environment that’s more normal at least, and quite likely better than normal. The post-2000 secular bear market appears to be giving way to a new secular bull market.
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