Worsening risk, new investors and the absent canary

There have been plenty of compelling reasons to go short credit as an asset class this year. Investment-grade corporates are under threat from leveraged takeover by huge private equity funds; at the lower end of the credit spectrum, the easy availability of cheap credit even to risky B-rated borrowers has stretched leverage ratios to unsustainable levels.

Over the summer, rising rates threatened to drain liquidity and easy money from the financial markets. Now, as the year ends, economists are fixated on the horrible US housing market and debating whether the economic landing will be hard or soft.

It’s all bad news for credit… and yet.

And yet, credit spreads have ground in all year. Why? Because most investment-grade corporates are in very rude financial health. Profits are strong, spending on capex or M&A has not risen at an alarming rate, cash and liquidity is high.

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