Uncertain outlook for emerging market FX until Fed hikes complete

Disagreement over where US interest rates are going has split opinion on overall prospects for emerging market currencies.

The results of HSBC’s latest emerging market sentiment survey, conducted between late January and early March, would have made positive reading for any investors with an interest in some of the less heavily traded currencies.

While respondents to the survey expressed concern at the prospect of rate hikes from developed market central banks, they were extremely bullish on emerging market FX.

There are signs that the storm is passing, as reflected by different volatility measures subsiding

Paul Mackel, HSBC

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