China: A song and dance for Belt and Road
China downgrade predicted by Euromoney survey
The decision by Moody’s to lower its sovereign rating on China was flagged-up in ECR’s crowd-sourcing survey more than a year ago, and it will mean higher funding costs in the offshore market.
Asia: ChemChina/Syngenta out of fashion just as it arrives
Asia banking: Inside Ant Financial’s nest
Ant Financial really wants MoneyGram, and has increased its bid by 36% – it’s a whole new style for the company, but getting it over the line will need more than money: it will mean convincing CFIUS… and Trump.Asia: China debt breakthroughs meet investor indifference
Bond Connect programme confirmed; long-term potential means little today.
Inside investment: Did the drugs just work?
China investment: Oh, no! Not an udder one
Philanthropy gears up with Asian altruism
"The Asian culture, particularly the Chinese, is very humble around charitable giving and wealth, but now there are more high-profile names talking about philanthropy, and that is encouraging individuals to follow suit."
China: The curious case of Guotai Junan
The Chinese brokerage’s fixed-price IPO in Hong Kong is being hailed as a step forward for a mainland-distorted market. But is it?
Jin Liqun: China’s internationalist
President focused on quality not quantity of lending; China prepared to give up effective veto to new members.
China deals and investment banks of the year 2016
Asiamoney and GlobalCapital Asia award the best banks and transactions in China, on and offshore.
Asia: Alder says Stock Connect has improved balance with Chinese regulators
Enforcement on the mainland remains a huge issue for the Hong Kong SFC, but its CEO claims things are changing.
Asia: Why CLSA had to call time on US research
It started out as one of 3,000 peer-to-peer lenders in China. In six years, it has become a broad wealth management platform that may raise as much as $5 billion in an international IPO this year. The pace of its growth has been every bit as breathtaking as Tencent’s WeChat or Alibaba’s Alipay, yet few outside China have heard of it. They will. CEO Gregory Gibb tells us why.
Asia’s vibrant high-yield start raises fears of a bubble
New China bond licences raise more questions
2017 Chinese economy & investment environment outlook e-book
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Chinese Hong Kong listings survive capital curfews
Asia bond markets make strong early running
Asia banking: Are China’s JVs worth the effort?
The long-awaited tie-up between HSBC and Shenzhen Qianhai Financial Holdings still seems to be nowhere in sight.
Portugal’s doubtful Chinese bailout
Chinese firms are back in the running for control of Portuguese banking. The two sides are more used to doing business now – and the sellers are even more desperate for capital.
China: AIIB’s clouded outlook
Year in data 2016: China’s dominance of investment banking reaches troubling levels
It is no secret that China is the biggest game in town in Asia-Pacific investment banking. But it is striking, even alarming, to learn just how utterly dominant it has become.
Asia: Shenzhen-HK Connect arrives as insurers are pilloried for investment
Investigations leave Hong Kong’s bankers nervous
SFC scrutinizes stock exchange sponsors; US pursues princeling hires.
Asia: Allure of the Chinese buyer begins to fade
China and India: A tale of two New York IPOs
ZTO Express underlines US affection for ambitious Chinese firms; Azure Power shows how much farther India’s have to go.
China’s swap shop tries to avoid swamping banks
New debt-equity swap measures tackle corporate debt load; bank NPLs are already rising.
Asia banking: China’s shadow monster can’t be stopped
Sector is opaque, distorting and unstable; banks ‘lending where they shouldn’t be’.
China: Postal Savings spreads the love 26 ways
Bank sets record for bookrunners on a single deal; raises $7.4 billion but only thanks to cornerstones.
ECR survey results Q3 2016: China, Italy, Nigeria mar stabilizing global outlook
Asia real estate: Divorce? It’s the best deal in China
Decoding the Chinese property market has always been a challenging science, but even the savviest analysts may not have appreciated one unlikely driver: divorce rates.
China private banking debate: Wealth managers look to a world of opportunity
China rings changes in homegrown bond markets
New deals show innovation; mounting concern about defaults.
China looks forward to second phase of CIPS
As the China International Payment System (CIPS) approaches its first anniversary, there is much anticipation around how the second phase of the project will impact RMB settlement volumes.
Bulge bracket gets slimmer in Asian investment banking revenues
Asia: CCB’s Wang is alert to China’s challenges
China Construction Bank is not alone among the country’s big four banks to claim it changed its lending policy before the rise in bad debts. But in chairman Wang Hongzhang, CCB has a leader who thinks differently.
Posts 9.02% loss for 2015-16; sovereign fund reshapes portfolio.
China retail gold survey 2016: China steps towards gold dominance
As the Shanghai Gold Exchange introduces a new benchmark, the country now leads in gold production, consumption and imports.
China Retail Gold Survey 2016: Results Index
MSCI decision tells China it can’t always get its own way
Wednesday’s decision by MSCI to delay membership for Chinese A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index serves a number of purposes.
M&A: China’s new language of acquisition
Chinese M&A ambition is good news for banks chasing advisory fees but soaring debt levels give cause for concern.
China’s Big Four ready for bad debt challenge
Bank chairmen confident they can tackle NPL problem; Chinese economy undergoing necessary restructuring.
Asia: Good news for a multilateral future
Orient IPO brings Citi partner to Hong Kong market
Asia: China's moment of truth
China: Corporates face toxic threat of debt
Corporate debt at record high; NPLs at state lenders also on rise.
Euromoney Country Risk survey results Q1 2016: Heightened concern over Brazil, China and other EMs accentuates global shock prospects
Panda breath: China fears dislocation, not doomsday
Polemicists arguing either side of this coin toss abound, from water coolers to Republican primaries. Where once markets drew direction from the pronouncements of Alan Greenspan, they now rise and fall on Chinese numbers. Ironically, no one actually believes the official numbers that China puts out.
Country risk: The compelling case for a China downgrade
China’s muddled FX policy sows reform doubts
China A-shares set for MSCI index breakthrough
QFII reforms will open up access to domestic stocks; China will have big weighting in EM index.
Hong Kong IPOs: Goodbaby, goodnight
Every now and then a barometer deal comes around: one whose outcome shows the market what to expect. One such was Goodbaby China Holdings, set to be a deal that showed there was still scope to launch IPOs, even mainland Chinese IPOs, in Hong Kong, despite volatility.
The January fall in emerging market currencies, the exodus of foreign capital and a global bear market in equities all point to a new financial crisis. How China reacts to this threat holds the key for emerging markets.
China rainmakers pour into private equity
Beijing seeks to allay fears of China crisis
Market and currency turmoil weigh on growth; financial and stock market reforms needed.
Against the tide: China’s bumpy ride
China: Currency contortions threaten dim sum
Gap between onshore and offshore exposed; Hong Kong dim sum market in doubt.
Panda breath – Street food for thought
With the energy of frustrated followers of Nostradamus finally finding vindication, market-watchers pounced on China’s opening-bell volatility as confirmation that the end, finally, was nigh.China GDP scepticism upends trading strategies
Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2015: China, Brazil and South Africa lead EM credit rout
Political instability, falling commodity prices, central-bank policy uncertainties and conflict were the principal negative risk factors for investors to contemplate at the turn of the year, as China’s troubles were brought into focus by another round of financial volatility.
Fear and loathing in Beijing rattles Chinese brokers
Arrests, disappearances and suicides rock industry; investor unease at hard-nosed Beijing.
China: Ex-regulator calls for market reforms
Gao urges SOE defaults; financial reform should precede capital liberalization.
Economists sombre on China monetary trap
Dollar dominance continues; RMB inclusion in IMF reserve basket symbolic.
AIIB spells out conservative approach
New Asia lender caps lending at $100 billion; dollars, not RMB, will fund projects.
China domestic reform: do or die
China is pushing ahead with capital account reforms but it needs to make sure its own house is in order first.
China's international payment system gathers steam
One month in and it’s a case of so far so good for the China International Payment System (CIPS), even allowing for limitations in operating hours.
Chinese corporates reassess FX hedging
Having done well from their exposure to the RMB during the past decade, the currency’s surprise devaluation in mid-August should force Chinese companies to brush up on hedging strategies that were rusty at best, but many are instead simply focusing on opportunistic borrowing strategies.
China's balancing act on exchange rate
China's quarter-point rate cut last Friday is the latest attempt to revive a flagging economy. But although currency liberalization is on the agenda in the longer term, the People's Bank of China is unlikely to be ready to cede control of the renminbi’s de facto dollar peg just yet as depreciation pressures grow.
Country risk survey results Q3 2015 dominated by China’s jitters, Brazilian crisis and EM capital shock
China’s risk score fell 1.5 points, to below 60 out of 100, for the first time in almost two years in Q3 2015.
China ponders privatization conundrum
Beijing plan to privatise slew of SOEs: Analysts fear concentration of power.
Special report: China's leading cities
The hubs in the New Silk Road.
Best China Cities Survey 2015
China private banking debate: Managing a wealth of riches in China
The nation’s private banking industry is blossoming, but even as it flourishes, leading players have to move fast to keep up with a changing market and an increasingly demanding and diverse client base. Euromoney gathered together a panel of private bankers, wealth managers and economists to discuss the market’s key issues in July.
Chinese investment banks: Calmer chameleons
Asia’s growing band of big, local investment banks won’t let short-term market fluctuations affect their planned transitions from national to regional leadership.
China's leaders hit the panic button
Look beyond the gyrations of its stock markets, and you can see one thing clearly in China: equivocation. The regime of Xi Jinping is fundamentally flawed because of its public espousal of the markets, but private refusal to cede any real control. Optimists hope the latest crisis could be the impetus for real reform. Most experts warn investors hoping for a recovery in their stock purchases not to hold their breath.
China starts market mayhem blame game
Market propped up by $200 billion in July and August; brokerage probes undermine drive to reform.
Sideways: China can learn from Goldman
China’s struggle to communicate effectively with markets was demonstrated by its scapegoating of journalists for supposedly worsening the crash in local stock prices.
Emerging-market crisis is key test for banks
Lenders were offered a valuable real-life stress test in late August, when investor concerns about the Chinese authorities’ bungled response to slowing growth in China following the devaluation of the yuan led to plunging Chinese and world equity prices, slumping commodity valuations and spikes in volatility across currency and securities markets.
China stuns markets with sudden currency devaluation
Everyone knew a revaluation of renminbi was coming sooner or later, yet China's announcement, including reform of the dollar fixing mechanism, caught many off guard. The move left observers debating whether it was stimulating its economy or acquiescing to calls for exchange-rate liberalization.
SWF: Temasek rides China wave to near 20% return
Over one quarter of fund invested in China; concern over volatility exposure.
Foreign investors pull Rmb40.5 billion in two weeks; average P/E ratio still 66 times.
China has seen slightly slower consumption and exports this year, but it is investment in manufacturing and real estate that are causing the most concern.
China stocks: turning a crisis into a catastrophe
The government has allowed what should have been a simple market correction to get the better of it.
Awards for Excellence 2015: Outstanding contribution to global financial services
In 15 years, Jiang Jianqing has taken ICBC from technical bankruptcy to the world’s most profitable bank.
China high yield: Whimper greets property developer Kaisa’s default
Stark contrast with reaction to Sino-Forest default in 2011; case highlights key man and regulatory risks in China.
Chinese corporates question value of advice
The culture among Chinese companies of preparing and executing their own acquisitions isn’t good news for investment banks keen to charge for services. Will it ever change?
Chinese buyers descend on Lisbon
It may be a battered economy on the edge of Europe, but Portugal is rapidly becoming the hotspot for Chinese corporate ownership in Europe, particularly in the financial sector. Whether they like it or not, governments and regulators in Lisbon, Brussels and elsewhere will welcome them with open arms.
China banks face real-estate dangers
The slowdown of the Chinese real-estate market is an increasing risk for the country’s banks, but government intervention might dampen the threat.
Dim sum bond issuance slumps as renminbi globalization struggles to gain traction
Recent data suggest that the momentum of the renminbi is slowing, particularly outside Asia.
China: Muni sea-change excites overseas investors
Beijing has ambitious plans for market; international funds will find it ‘hard to ignore’.
Euromoney Country Risk Survey Q1 2015: Russia crisis, China fragility and EMs’ capital-flow shock
China’s growth concerns, exaggerated by a flaky real-estate market and an iron-ore industry now in a tailspin, have seen its risk score weaken since 2014.
Digital banking: Electronic shock for China's old guard
Tencent and Alibaba are at the vanguard of setting up new online banks. It's a great way to shake up the old state players and, by mining their data, get credit ratings for China's underserved population. But do upstart tech companies really have the political and business resources to challenge the incumbents?
Stock Connect: China shorting plan ‘needs more lenders'
The pool of approved stock lenders for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect short selling scheme must be widened for the initiative to succeed, according to market experts.
Debt restructuring with Chinese characteristics
Critics may cry foul at the moral hazard but Beijing has bought itself time with its debt swap for local governments.
Asia: Patience pays off as Citic/CLSA makes its mark
Few thought that the marriage of a Chinese securities firm with an Asian brokerage which had a unique, and at times disruptive, culture could work. But two years on, Citic and CLSA have proved they can be at least the sum of their parts. Can the combination now become a true regional powerhouse as its leaders hope?
Asia: Anti-graft drive puts Macau in the shade
Gaming capital stocks fall 41%; gambling revenues down 30%.
Chinese brokers hungry for assets outside Asia
Haitong adds to trend with BESI deal; further opportunistic moves on way.
Online banking comes to China
Pioneering WeBank launches; China set to lead industry.
Trade finance: RMB expansion catches up with China GDP
Capital controls have constrained the use of the renminbi in global trade, while China’s real economy has surged ahead. Despite the strict rules around its use, market players are punting on strong RMB growth in 2015, Euromoney’s Trade Finance survey reveals.
China sprouts green shoots in securitization
A flurry of new deals points to an exciting new business possibility for Apac banks in 2015.
Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect enables CNH funding arbitrage
The Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect, which was launched amid much fanfare on November 17, has triggered a jump in CNH-funded arbitrage opportunities. However, rising Stock Connect volumes and easing by the People’s Bank of China – triggering a convergence between onshore and offshore rates – will remove current funding advantages.
China: Stock Connect through train steams ahead
The eagerly awaited Stock Connect system connecting Hong Kong to the mainland is up and running to relief all round. While traditional long-only funds and southbound flows have lagged, market players foresee a new dawn in Chinese equity trading.
Looming China crisis adds to eurozone and emerging-market threats - ECR Q3
The latest results from the Euromoney Country Risk survey point to an unprecedented rise in risk across almost all geographical regions since June, with emerging markets (EMs) taking the biggest hit as doubts over China, the eurozone and US liquidity support weigh heavily on experts’ evaluations.
China trade finance: What lies beneath
The surge in China-related trade financing might not be as encouraging as the pure numbers indicate.
South Korea battling for RMB spoils
Backed by its robust trading relationship with China, the east Asian nation is the latest fledgling offshore renminbi hub. Market participants shed light on South Korea’s renminbi bid as internationalization of the Chinese currency gathers pace.
Asian bankers bathe in Alibaba afterglow
Alibaba lists on NYSE; deal might free up pipeline.
Brics bank: requiem for a dream
Incensed by their failure to reform, Brics policymakers have established a flawed rival to the World Bank and IMF. Rhetoric aside, the west dismisses emerging-market dissent over the broken financial architecture at its peril.
China’s ratings misprice its risk; Hong Kong’s are spot on
Disaggregating China’s investor risk into its constituent parts points to less safety in its sovereign bonds than its credit ratings suggest. Hong Kong is a different proposition with experts choosing to ignore its political problems.
China banking: Cinda – on the ball or to the wall?
Asset management company Cinda is a stark example of the implausible nature of China’s financial system. It has transformed its business model from an NPL warehouse to what some call a giant shadow bank. With more AMCs in the pipeline, analysts are beginning to question if China understands the risks it is piling up.
Hong Kong sukuk boosts Islamic credentials
The debut issue of a five-year $1 billion sukuk this week is a statement of intent from Hong Kong that it is serious about Islamic finance, sending a strong signal to rival financial centres.
Real estate survey 2014: Asia – China takes back seat in Asian real estate
The weakness of the Chinese market has prompted the Asian real estate industry to look elsewhere for returns in 2014.
HKMA intervention once again prompts debate on US dollar peg
Bets of a re-peg of the Hong Kong dollar have resurfaced in the currency markets as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened to inject dollar liquidity to the tune of $9.86 billion several times since July 1 on the back of large inflows into Hong Kong during the past few months.
China retail gold survey 2014: China takes a dip
After a strong showing in 2013, this year looks like being less fruitful for China’s gold market. But the retail market continues to flourish. The prediction is for 25% growth in the next four years.
China: IPOs in line for a ticket on the through train
New system connects Shanghai and HK markets; regulations need to catch up.
China banking risks three times higher than US
China’s banking risks have tripled in one year amid a decline in market capitalization for the sector and a rise in debt issuance, as fears over the shadow-banking system grow, according to the latest projections from a systemic risk index, Euromoney can reveal.
China: CIC censured for mismanagement
Authorities more strident on standards; wealth fund criticized for lack of due diligence.
China helps bridge Russia’s investment gap
Joint investment fund undertakes new deals; Kazakhstan’s nationalized bank sell-offs set to go.
Why the biggest victim of rising US yields could be China
How rising US short-term rates would complicate China’s credit challenge amid fears that a second, bank-led wave of outflows from emerging markets could be on the horizon.
Capital controls in China are broken; Beijing faces a new 'impossible trinity'
The sharp jump in cross-border lending to China in recent years means capital controls are de facto broken. As a result, Beijing faces the “impossible trinity” – an inability to manage exchange rates, monetary policy and allow for free movement of capital, all at the same time. China faces an renminbi-policy crisis just as much as a potential credit crisis.
Financial crisis fears in China overblown – private bank chiefs
Euromoney asked the CIOs and strategists of the leading private banks: are you adding or taking away China risk in your portfolios.
China’s banks shake off fear of foreign climes
Most have followed their clients’ businesses abroad. Now it’s time for them to learn the lesson of Alibaba’s listing in New York and become true international finance players.
Equities: Harbin underwhelms on HK debut
Deal priced at bottom of range; Alibaba finally chooses New York over HK.
Banking in China 2.0
Two banking upstarts are resetting the relationships the Chinese have with their boring old state lenders by being convenient and readily understood. Even better, they pay great rates. But the incumbents aren’t taking this new threat lying down.
China, India and Russia worst offenders in trapping company cash
Treasury professionals of companies with combined annual sales of more than $250 billion have voted China, India and Russia as the worst countries to repatriate company funds from, according to Euromoney’s ‘trapped cash’ pulse survey.
China’s country-risk score still sliding
Experts lacking faith in the sovereign keep nudging its score downwards, suggesting the rating agencies are too confident in their risk assessment.
Decline of yuan-way bets triggers financial stability fears
The longstanding one-way bet on USDCNY has been in disarray, but worse might be to come, as China looks to its FX regime to cope with credit issues, and likely defaults this year, threatening volatility in the structured-product market.
ICBC lays new foundations
Chinese bank’s London purchase likely to be followed by other acquisitions in foreign markets.
Private banking: China Merchants Bank woos second-generation wealthy
Wealth preservation a growing focus; succession issues come to the fore.
Private banking: China’s wealth set to overtake Japan's this year – HSBC
‘Plenty of work for wealth advisers’ in Asia, says HSBC in a report this week, citing how the region ex-Japan’s wealth will eclipse the US by the end of 2015.
Africa safe from China slowdown – for now
While China’s economic slowdown has had repercussions on global emerging markets, frontier markets – specifically China’s trade partners in Africa – have been relatively insulated from the storm, sheltered in part by their limited financial systems. And, perhaps surprisingly, analysts are sanguine about the outlook for commodity-intensive trade.
Physical ETFs to ease access to China A shares
New funds to track both A50 and CSI300 indices; Ucits compliance opens funds to European buyers.
Equity capital markets: China IPOs ride high despite regulator’s action
Mainland China leads exchange nationality ranking; Hong Kong IPOs start year to warm sentiment.
Emerging market sell-off as a weak dollar/strong renminbi crisis
Is it all China’s fault? The Fed's? Febrile sentiment from the likes of Larry Fink? Argentina? Turkey? Or all of the above?
Emerging market plunge: Sino the times?
Not all emerging markets are in free fall, investors are discriminating between surplus and deficit countries, it’s not all China’s fault, and domestic EM policies matter.
Market is bullish on renminbi internationalization amid China wobbles
Concrete advances towards the full tradability of the Chinese currency are at last seemingly being made, helping to rebalance the country’s growth model but heaping on short-term risks to China’s economic and financial stability.
The stock market impact of China’s reforms
The country faces many problems in banking, real estate, consumption and demographics that cannot be quickly solved.
Asian M&A: China key to urge to merge
Asia Pacific’s moribund M&A market needs promised reforms in China to be effected as soon as possible.
Asian capital markets: Debt enjoys record year as equity rebounds
China drives capital markets; convertible bond issues stage a return.
China IPO market set to open in 2014 following regulatory clean-up
The mainland Chinese IPO market is set for a comeback this year as China’s Securities Regulatory Commission lifts a ban on new stock market listings as early as January and regulatory overhauls ease risk, analysts say.
China-German economic ties set for rebalancing
Germany’s export machine will be hit by a rebalancing of China's economy, but the special relationship between the world’s second- and fourth-largest economies might provide a springboard for the development of more sustainable economic ties.
London-China ties strengthen as China Construction Bank touts UK business
With extended opportunities for UK investors in China through programmes such as the RQFII scheme, China Construction Bank opened its doors this week to London-based investors, signalling the strength of the Sino-UK relationship.
China private equity in transition
Strong industry growth over past decade; adverse effect of dearth of IPOs.
Cyclical China bears morph into structural bulls post-plenum
China’s once-in-a-generation economic reforms have largely pleased some notable bears, as new policies reflect Beijing’s recognition that a growth-at-all-costs investment-led model is bust, while capital-account opening could help navigate short-term credit challenges.
Latin America banking: Political risk slows China’s progress
But expected wave of bank consolidation not forthcoming; hampered in Argentina by high regulatory and political risk.
China consolidates its Latin American presence
Recent large-scale Chinese acquisitions and consortium agreements in the LatAm financial and energy sectors indicate the People’s Republic’s continuing interest in the region’s resources.
China: Has FTA snub driven Shanghai’s FTZ?
Rush to open free trade zone; aim to facilitate China’s entry into TPP.
At its Third Plenum, the Communist Party communicated its commitment to economic change. The country’s first free trade zone, in Shanghai, will act as the test bed, but without clarity on any number of policies, will international firms rush to set up shop?
China’s reform agenda
The absence of senior officials at the opening of China’s first FTZ doesn’t mean it’s not a priority.
Four challenges facing Shanghai free-trade zone
China’s ambitious liberalization experiment in Shanghai, announced at the third plenum, could reshape national policy – but there are four key challenges that could thwart the project.
FX investors should look east; China could taper before the Fed
For all the focus on the Federal Reserve’s plans to start tapering its asset purchases, currency investors should also be looking at developments in China.
China ‘bad bank’ plan perplexes market amid secret debt workouts
The Chinese government says it wants to transform its asset management companies – established to take on growing bad debts in the banking system – into commercially driven enterprises. In reality, a lack of transparency on portfolio loans means analysts are none the wiser as to the scale of the problem and the resolution process for legacy loans.
Arbitrage a risk in Shanghai free-trade zone
The free-trade zone in Shanghai has been depicted as one of the biggest steps towards Chinese economic liberalization, but some analysts argue the risk of arbitrage and a lack of transparency will be difficult to overcome – while there is no consensus on whether policymakers are committed to full-scale capital-market liberalization.
UK Treasury China-bank charm offensive exposes regulatory arbitrage
The UK Treasury’s courtship of Chinese banks highlights, in part, London’s relatively flexible regulatory regime for foreign banks – in contrast to the Fed. It also opens up a broader debate about subsidiarization and global banking models, more generally, amid regulatory turf wars.
China’s latest swap agreement will facilitate trade
Swap agreement reflects growing trade; London has competitive advantage.
Equity capital markets: Li looks to IPO market as ParknShop sale fails
AS Watson under strategic review; IPO would be Asia’s biggest in three years.
Agricultural Bank of China economist warns economic reform hinges on politics
Xiang Songzuo, chief economist of state-owned ABC, says China’s next raft of reforms – from retooling state-owned enterprises to tackling local government debt burdens and environmental challenges – will involve a disruptive shift in the political system.
US Treasury renminbi undervaluation claim disputed
The US government has upped the ante in its criticism of China’s foreign exchange regime, but Lombard Street Research reckons the renminbi is, in fact, overvalued by 30% on a trade-weighted basis, citing, in part, rising unit labour costs and disinflationary pressures.
India still a crumbling Bric as China strengthens: ECR Q3 2013
Only China, now the safest of the five Brics, has a higher score compared with the beginning of this year.
Jury still out on China’s commitment to liberalization of financial system
The Shanghai free-trade zone (FTZ), China’s grand experiment with liberalizing interest rates and opening its capital account, has only a short window of opportunity to convince the markets that the Communist Party is serious about reform.
Cash management: A revolution in cash for China
Demand for sophisticated cash management services in China is rising as the authorities press for greater business efficiency at home and Chinese corporates expand their foreign operations. Renminbi liberalization is another driver.
Make or break time at China’s third plenum
High hopes for sweeping reform; Li says country is at crucial juncture.
Shanghai’s FTZ is not a threat
The new free-trade zone in Shanghai is much more likely to invigorate Hong Kong as a financial sector than threaten it.
New China import tax might take the heat out of coal
On September 3, Beijing announced a 3% tax on coal imports with low calorific value. Some market analysts are concerned that the tax might have a negative impact on Indonesian exports of thermal coal as the levy could remove any price advantages. Between January and July this year, Indonesia accounted for 97% of China’s lignite imports.
Commodities: Adaro fuels Asia’s hunger for power
As China’s appetite for commodities appears to be fading, demand for Indonesian coal could also fall, putting the export economy under stress. Mining company Adaro explains why the future is still bright.
International RMB: Luxembourg 1 Rest of Europe 0
London should be wary of the Duchy’s ambitions to become Europe’s RMB hub.
China sows seeds for next global downturn
The emerging market sell-off since May is just the start of a painful multi-year adjustment process – and China has blazed a trail for the next downturn. Capital abundance, deflationary pressures and imbalanced global demand continue to drive the 15-year cycle of credit booms and busts.
Big-game hunting for China’s POEs
State-owned companies have, until now, set the tone in China. But as economic growth slows and state-driven capital market activity founders, banks are hunting for business from China’s privately owned, ambitious enterprises.
Bank shortcomings exposed as Chinese economy founders
The Chinese economy is growing ever more slowly – probably slipping even faster than officially admitted, and from a base whose size is possibly exaggerated too. In the midst of this, the orthodox banking sector is doing unorthodox things on a grand scale, while being undermined and bypassed by an even more unorthodox grey financial sector.
China: Government bond futures return after 18 years
Risk-control measures in place; further step in economic liberalization.
Bank hiring practices: US regulators turn spotlight on Hong Kong
Banks everywhere hire well-connected employees as standard practice. Why should Hong Kong so grate with US regulators?
The preferred method for playing Chinese credit markets remains the dim sum bond market, say analysts, as China’s expansion of access to its onshore market is met with a cool reception by foreign investors.
Jin-Yong Cai: An activist at the IFC
The new head of the International Finance Corporation, Jin-Yong Cai, tells Euromoney about the need for the World Bank’s private-sector arm to take more risks and be more activist in developing policy ideas in such areas as infrastructure development and poverty reduction.
Emerging market FX growth underperforms broader market
Emerging market (EM) currencies are expected to continue to expand their share of the $5.3 trillion-a-day global forex market despite the turmoil, with China’s RMB leading the charge.
China struggling to balance growth imperative with structural reform
China’s economy is embarking on a new and critical phase of development as the country attempts to navigate its way beyond growth for growth’s sake to create an economy that serves the needs of its people.
Chinese bond market on long and winding road to maturity
Despite the strides China is making in the development of its $2.7 trillion government bond market, it remains structurally inefficient, thanks to meagre trading volume in an asset class strangled by the country’s fixed interest rate regime. Calls are growing for greater efforts to develop the government and corporate bond market structure in a bid to boost the efficiency of savings and non-bank financing.
China Retail Gold Survey 2013: China’s gold market takes its own path
Activity and prices remain buoyant in China’s gold markets despite the slip in prices in the west.
China wrestles with data-accuracy conundrum amid global spotlight
The veracity of official data from China has long been questioned due to inconsistencies, missing key indicators or massaging of the numbers for political reasons. Now the stakes seem higher: the rise in the shadow banking system and question marks over the accuracy of economic and industry data add to fears that calculating systemic leverage in China’s economy is mission impossible.
China: Bankers welcome China clampdown
Bankers focus on positives; say authorities will strike right balance.
China: People’s Bank stays firm to calm fears
Funding squeeze reaches peak; PBoC to safeguard stability.
Asian risks fragment in light of countervailing trends in China and Japan – ECR Q2 2013 results
China and Japan’s contrasting trends create a more even split of safer and riskier sovereigns across Asia as 12 countries see lower scores, 10 push higher and six are unchanged.
China RMB debate: The renminbi’s road to full internationalization
Euromoney’s debate involving leading executives in Asian financial services throws light on the Chinese currency’s progress to full international status and the likely developments that will hinder and advance the process.
Currencies the best way to hedge against China crash
Investors looking to insure against the probability of a hard landing in China should look to the currency market.
Taming of China shadow banks crimped by archaic regulatory structure
The rapid, seemingly uncontrolled, expansion of China’s shadow banking sector is under intense scrutiny because of the risks it poses to the banking system, and the economy itself, but also because the sector is largely unregulated. Urgent steps are needed to beef up regulatory vigilance as China seeks to engineer a contraction of credit to levered sectors.
China’s war on shadow financing raises spectre of credit crisis
Fears are growing that a concentration of bad debt in China’s informal lending or shadow financial sector, is a ticking time-bomb that might not only weigh on economic growth and stoke inflation but could cause a far more damaging banking crisis.
Renminbi overvalued by 30%; China macro risks rise
The appreciation of China’s renminbi in the face of deteriorating economic fundamentals and global disinflation represents a new normal in China’s political economy, but opinion is split about whether the currency is overvalued.
China risk score hits 10-year low amid liquidity crisis
China’s banking sector has emerged as the principal source of sovereign risk, reversing a decade-long trend, say analysts.
China liquidity crisis: a welcome stress test?
Whether there is a serious liquidity shortage in the Chinese banking sector or just poor liquidity management is missing the broader point: recent outflows provide a necessary stress test for the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to assess the appetite for capital account liberalization, say analysts.
China: Threats of a crisis lurking in the shadows
Fears are starting to escalate that China’s heated financial sector is about to reach boiling point.
Liquidity crunch a catalyst for big China slowdown – analysts
The mini liquidity crunch is the early warning sign of a substantial economic correction long overdue, amid rising leverage and a broken growth model, say bearish analysts.
China’s FX carry trade: the next shoe to drop?
For FX investors witnessing the volatility in high-yielding currencies, it might seem a strange time to warn about the potential bursting of a carry trade bubble, but one has managed to slip under the radar.
China bears re-emerge from the wilderness as credit fears grow
Fears are growing that China’s elevated debt levels, diminishing returns from its bank-financed investment-led growth strategy and slowing GDP prospects mean a credit crisis is in the making.
US falls behind the curve as China pushes forth with internationalization of the RMB
As the internationalization of the renminbi takes off this year, chances are that New York will be left behind, says Andy Seaman, fund manager and partner at Stratton Street Capital, a London-based investment fund manager.
Fully convertible RMB: the final frontier
China’s long journey to a fully convertible currency may be nearing an end, according to BCA research, as the timing for liberalization couldn’t be any better.
China curbs on speculative inflows pave way for renminbi band widening
Measures introduced by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) this week to stem speculative inflows of capital into the country could be a first step towards further liberalization of Beijing’s currency policy.
China FX liberalization to ease reserve headache; Beijing at point of no return
China has announced further plans to liberalize the renminbi, a move that could relieve the pressure of excessive FX reserve growth that has been triggered by the easing of the eurozone financial crisis.
Shadow over China’s growth trajectory – Asia Q1 results
Slower-than-expected growth and enduring bank-stability issues continue to weigh on China’s risk outlook, according to ECR analysts.
Chinese banks: too big to compete
As China transitions to a market-based consumption-led economy, financial reform seems inevitable and yet China’s big four government-backed lenders continue to dominate the landscape. More competition is needed to boost innovation in the formal banking system and lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.
Redback’s rocky rise: will China bite the monetary bullet?
Pent-up global demand, Chinese economic dominion and monetary reform have fed optimism that the renminbi is on the path to becoming a global trade and investment currency. However, although currency internationalization will boost China’s growth model in the medium-to-long term, the short-term political and economic costs are huge.
Nominal GDP targeting – a new method in the Chinese monetary policy madness?
HSBC's chief economist Stephen King and Yu Yongding, a former academic adviser to the People's Bank of China, debate the allure of nominal GDP targeting as a possible anchor for monetary policy in China.
China: Cash management revolution under way
Pilot schemes to aid integration; FDI exacerbates challenges.
China toughens IPO stance to boost confidence
A quarter of IPO applicants might reconsider; market saturated.
Former People’s Bank of China adviser warns on China imbalances
Former monetary policy official Yu Yongding calls on the Chinese government to turbo-charge its economic reform agenda, including financial market liberalization, in order to nurture a consumption-led economy.
The renminbi will become as integral to global trade as letters of credit or the container ship. Companies need to think carefully on how to blend daily RMB usage into their existing supply chains as Beijing begins to remove bureaucratic FX hurdles.
China rebalancing: winds of change
The economy continues to defy the doom-mongers, but to nurture a sustainable and domestic-led growth model China’s new leadership must embark on painful, destabilizing and controversial reforms.
China hard landing could still blow up world - Société Générale
Société Générale reveals the disfigured face of the global economy in the event of a China growth shock, given the country’s unsustainable investment rate – its all-too familiar Achilles heel.
China eyes stability with moves to welcome more sovereign wealth
The People’s Bank of China moved this week to lift a $1 billion cap on a sovereign-level onshore investment window. But will central banks and sovereign wealth funds take the bait?
Interest rates in China will be fully liberalized in three years – HSBC
In a recent report published by HSBC, Qu Hongbin argues that with China's leadership change will come a flurry of economic reforms, with interest rate liberalization expected in the next three years.
Inside investment: Nudging 1.3 billion Chinese
The incoming Chinese leadership should use the subtle insights of behavioural finance – and the blunt message of bond issuance – to rebalance their economy toward domestic consumption.