US commercial real estate: Storm in a teacup or next shoe to drop?

Fears were already growing about dangers lurking in US commercial real estate even before the wave of turmoil that has hit banks in the last two months. After the pandemic and a rush of rate hikes, there is little debate that the sector is at a turning point – the question is whether something worse is on the horizon.

Can there ever have been a death more comprehensively foretold than that of US commercial real estate (CRE)? The sector’s prophets of doom had been hyperactive long before the most recent turmoil in regional banking.

And why not? After all, there have been many indicators flashing red. The stock prices of real estate investment trusts (Reits) are falling sharply, as are those of some regional and smaller banks, which carry the bulk of bank lending to CRE.

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