Can there ever have been a death more comprehensively foretold than that of US commercial real estate (CRE)? The sector’s prophets of doom had been hyperactive long before the most recent turmoil in regional banking.
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And why not? After all, there have been many indicators flashing red. The stock prices of real estate investment trusts (Reits) are falling sharply, as are those of some regional and smaller banks, which carry the bulk of bank lending to CRE.
Vornado Realty Trust, a Reit that invests in office buildings in Manhattan, is down 33% year to date and has dropped nearly 50% in just the last three months.
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