Credit derivatives: Go easy on the curves

LBOs and technicals have boosted betting on the continuing steepness of the European credit curve. But nothing good lasts for ever and several things could upset the apple cart.

The differential between the five-year and the 10-year iTraxx Europe Index is about 23 basis points. This is close to record highs. At the end of last September, when the new Series 4 Index was rolled out, it was 19bp. Roughly half of this 4bp steepening in five months is a result of rolldown, as the five-year index tightens faster over time because of exaggerated steepness of the curve in the shorter maturities, but 2bp represents genuine steepening.

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