A belated sense of realism appeared to be in evidence in Ankara this week when the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) raised its inflation forecasts to 12.1% for the end of this year and 9.4% for the end of 2021.
“Whether inflation falls below 10% next year clearly depends on the external backdrop, the global recovery and FX,” says Deutsche Bank emerging markets strategist Christian Wietoska. “But 9.4% is much more realistic than the CBRT’s previous forecast or our initial expectations of an increase in the forecast to 8%.”
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