Russia risks derailing banks’ regional plans

As Europe has stagnated since the financial crisis, Russia proved an invaluable source of returns for a handful of lucky western banking groups. But with Putin on the offensive, the rouble on the slide and recession on the horizon, its days as an engine of regional growth look to be over.

As head of one of the largest western banks in Russia, Sergei Monin could be forgiven for feeling uneasy about the outlook for 2015. Instead, at least at the time of Euromoney’s meeting with him in November, the CEO of Raiffeisenbank is almost astonishingly confident. “Even in a worst case scenario where all ties between Russia and the west are frozen, I think we would still be able to do good business,” he says.

It would be a mistake to dismiss this as mere bravado.