Europe: The single-currency grand bargain has to be re-made

If Europe’s sovereign debt problem is heading to a decisive crisis moment, it seems that it must resolve itself either through some form of greater fiscal union or a break-up of the single currency that, if disorderly, could easily be even worse for the global financial system and economy than the aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy.

For a decade Europe’s weaker sovereigns enjoyed the luxury of borrowing at rates within a few basis points of Germany. This seemed a fair bargain in return for giving up the flexibility to devalue their currencies in response to any economic or financial crisis. But now they have gone back to funding at the same wide spreads to Germany that prevailed before the single currency was introduced. Euro-denominated governments trade as a series of separate individual markets that investors can position themselves against any time that they judge spreads are not compensating for worrying credit fundamentals.

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