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June 2006

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LATEST ARTICLES

  • As more and more Mexicans are encouraged to buy their own homes, the companies that provide mortgages will increasingly look to the international capital markets to fund their lending. Armando Guzman, director general of mortgage provider Metrofinanciera, talks to Lawrence White about his expansive borrowing strategy and his hopes for the development of mortgage-backed securitizations.
  • Hiring and firing securities markets regulators on the basis of stock index performance is not a particularly credible policy. But that’s what the Saudi authorities did last month, sacking the chairman of the Capital Markets Authority, Jammaz Al-Suhaimi, a modernizer and reformer unfairly demonized on stock speculators’ bulletin boards across the kingdom as somehow being responsible for the crash of an overvalued market.
  • Russian firms seek investor-friendly foreign talent; investor-friendly foreign talent seek large bonuses.
  • If a product swamps a market, prices go down. Yet this basic economic tenet seems to have eluded many of the issuers in the Spanish covered bonds market. How else to explain the consistent lack of coordination in issuance endemic in the world of the cédulas?
  • Otmar Issing has been the most impressive advocate of the ECB. What happens now that the bank has lost its implicit third pillar in monetary policy?
  • Funds are circumventing anti-concentration regulations with single-stock futures.
  • Wondering why everyone in global capital markets is thinking China these days? Look no further than PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Greater China IPO Watch. According to the accountants, the average deal size from the Greater China region (including mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan) was $260 million in 2005, an increase of more than 200%. For the first time, it exceeded that of the US ($170 million) and Europe ($100 million).
  • NAIC’s SVO brings further woe to the hybrids industry; the US market looks less viable than it once did.
  • It is a good job that investors don’t seem to be able to get enough of UK prime RMBS as the pipeline of such paper stood at more than £9 billion ($16.7 billion) towards the end of May. The new RMBS issuers poised to launch into this market (revealed in Euromoney’s April issue) were flexing their muscles mid-month, with Lloyds TSB confirming its RMBS programme and RBS first out of the gate with its £4.7 billion Arran Residential Mortgages Funding. The bank has decided not to set up a master trust but will have securitized £9.2 billion of UK mortgage risk via just two transactions in roughly six months when the deal closes. Arran Residential Mortgages, which accounts for half of the pipeline on its own, should get a rapturous reception, given how buyers responded to Standard Life’s latest Lothian issue, which achieved record tights for the sector with dollar-denominated triple-A paper placed at eight basis points over Libor. Later in the month Granite Mortgages saw triple-B risk sold at an eyewatering 47bp over Libor, which could go a long way to explaining the recent intense issuer interest in this sector.
  • Investors need to tread with caution as uncertainty surrounds the Federal Reserve’s next move.
  • ...While Wax wows them
  • One piece of analysis that is certain to be a fixture on desks this summer is a 59-page report by Goldman Sachs. In preparation for the football World Cup, which kicks off on June 9 in Germany, Goldman Sachs has put together a guide to each participating country and its team’s chances of success.
  • Greece has lagged behind the rest of the eurozone in its use of techniques to free up value in real estate loans and assets. But banks’ needs for capital should fuel securitization, and new legislation will enable public bodies to make sale and leaseback deals. Dimitris Kontogiannis reports.
  • At a time when M&A volumes are rising, a toughening up of the CFIUS could deter foreign companies looking to buy in the US. And that would take a serious chunk out of Wall Street’s fees. Kathryn Tully reports.
  • Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s former prime minister, says her political coalition is committed to a programme of privatization and economic reform if a representative of her team assumes the top job in the country’s next government.
  • Access to collateral is the number one topic of conversation in the CLO market. But if a viable leveraged loan CDS market develops, Christmas will have come early for many players.
  • Merrill Lynch has upgraded Tunisia to overweight in response to the government’s announcement of a $1.56 billion debt management programme to be funded by the privatization of Tunisie Telecom. The bank believes this active approach will help bond prices, and categorizes Tunisia as a defensive asset at a time when the global emerging markets outlook is unsteady.
  • Overvalued IPOs give cause for concern. Some bankers are becoming wary of damaging their reputation with rushed or over-valued Russian IPOs. Two banks dropped out of a deal last month and some analysts urge that caution be exercised in further IPOs.
  • I was lunching at Cecconi’s with my friend Richard. Cecconi’s is an Italian restaurant in Mayfair frequented by hedge fund hotties, Latvian lovelies with pneumatic mammaries and the odd voyeur such as myself. Dame Marjorie Scardino, chief executive of publishing group Pearson – or her doppelganger – was at the next table. Regretfully, under my Cecconi classification system, she falls into the voyeur category. Well she’s hardly a buxom Latvian is she? Richard is the brother I never had. He is funny, clever, irreverent and, in his spare time, a successful investment banker. If he weren’t one of my closest friends, I would hate him for the insouciance of it all.
  • Europe’s government bond auctions are a classic example of market failure. The department of Charlie McCreevy, the EU’s markets commissioner, knows this but can do nothing until it receives an official complaint. If banks are subsidizing the auction process to the tune of €600 million a year, as some claim, why don’t they make the call to Brussels?
  • Saudi petrochemicals company Sabic will issue domestic sukuk bonds with a total value of at least SR1 billion ($267 million), according to the company’s financial vice-president, Mutlaq al-Morished. The bond should be finalized this month or next, with huge demand expected from the paper-hungry local market.
  • Indian companies have been the largest issuers of foreign currency convertible bonds in Asia. But there could be trouble ahead.
  • Maverick leader opens arms to international and national investors.
  • The advent of whole-business securitization and the creation of a liquid market in project-related debt has opened investors’ eyes to the rewards available in infrastructure. Governments’ desire for off-balance-sheet funding has also boosted the supply of suitable investments. But what makes infrastructure different? How do you buy it, sell it and manage it?
  • The listed infrastructure fund, which is common in Australia, is gaining traction in Asia, with two new structures hitting the market in recent weeks.
  • “It’s so bloody liquid, it’s not even funny.”
  • Andy Abrahams, you’re rubbish...
  • Richard Longmore, head of EMEA FX sales, has abruptly left Merrill Lynch.
  • The expected evolution of opco propco to the pub sector failed to materialize in May when Robert Tchenguiz’s Globe Pub Company opted for a whole business structure to fund the the ex-Spirit pub portfolio.
  • Bayer has played white knight for the second time this year. The German chemicals company rescued Schering from the clutches of Merck in March with a €16.5 billion offer