The exhibitors told me that there had been a good mix of delegates asking them for information about their offerings and there were some excellent panel discussions.
I’ll leave it to others to say whether or not the one I moderated was any good, but I certainly learnt a few new things. We were there to discuss the changing nature of the market and I somewhat clumsily pointed out the fact that FX undergoes regular evolutions rather than revolutions. If the session had been held with the same participants a decade ago, the only person whose views would have carried any weight would have been UBS’s Ed Pla. Things have changed – largely as a result of the pioneering role UBS itself played in the distribution of FX. Who knows, if we hold the panel again in 2019, it might well be that UBS’s viewpoint is the one we consider the least relevant, but somehow I doubt it. All reports of the bank’s demise so far have proved to be greatly exaggerated and it really would have to press the self-destruct button to create greater challenges that it has had to face through 2008.
The topic of counterparty credit was one of the issues we debated and much to my surprise, 83% of the audience said it was a major concern, seemingly completely destroying my recent argument that it wasn’t. However, as only 48% of the same respondents then said they would be prepared to pay to use a central counterparty to mitigate credit risk, I’ll cling to my view that the importance of the topic will diminish, unless of course the buy side can get the sell side to pay for them. Given the current revenue pressures, I don’t think there’s too much chance of that happening.
Whilst walking around the Forum, I bumped into Neil McClements, once of the venerable and iconic Lehman Brothers, now ensconced at Nomura. Before Lehman’s crippling losses, a situation brought about because it had too much toxic waste on its balance sheet, the prospects of the bank’s FX division looked very bright. The decision by Nomura to hire about 45 former Lehman staff means it is likely we will see its ilk again, although only time will tell whether its continuing plans will result in a new FX giant emerging.
Another old face I bumped into was Gavin Wells, who used to head up Citi’s FX e-commerce, but who now seems to be really enjoying his life as a consultant. At first I didn’t recognize him, even if he was still sartorially impressive. It was the Mohican haircut he was sporting that confused and, I must confess, slightly scared me. He reckons it cheers people up – it certainly gets their attention.
I also thoroughly enjoyed myself on the second day of the Forum, as I strutted around the exhibition meeting new and old acquaintances. At this stage, I must confess my ego started to get a little over-inflated, although it was soon burst by FXall’s Rebecca Tong. “Excuse me for asking,” she said. “But did you used to work with my dad?”
And it’s true. Her dad, Mike Hicks, used to work at Credito Italiano and I was one of his brokers. He came to a “young ones” lunch I once hosted for dealers under the age of 25. He is now 52 years old. For some reason my ego was so deflated that Rebecca might as well have asked me if I knew her grandfather as well. Who said FX was a young man’s game?
