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Banking

Economic impact of Brexit: special focus

What will Brexit mean for the UK, and for the rest of the EU? Bankers, traders, corporates and economists prepare for the economic impact of Brexit.

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Sideways: Deutsche Bank's Garth Ritchie – the Brexit thinker
 

April 2019

The news that Garth Ritchie, head of investment banking at Deutsche Bank, is being paid €250,000 a month for extra responsibility 'in connection with the implications of Brexit' has been condemned in Germany, where politicians and union leaders are preparing to oppose a potential merger with Commerzbank and associated job cuts.

Yellow vests show why banks are delaying Brexit moves

February 2019

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Back-office hubs are at greater risk than London.

Brexit is a nail in the high-street bank’s coffin

January 2019 

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Branch closures in the name of digitalization, on top of wider woes in the retail sector, could exacerbate the kind of community breakdown that led to Brexit.

Mifid II is hurting, but there is no way back

December 2018

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The damage done to mid-cap equities coverage by unbundling research is ever harder to ignore. It will not be easy to lower this self-imposed barrier to improved capital-markets access for fast-growing businesses in Europe.

Frankfurt can be, frankly, odd 

November 2018

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The city is wooing banks from London in an all-too-literal manner.

Banking resolution: BRRD on the run

October 2018

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As if Europe's resolution regime did not have enough problems to tackle, the imminent departure of the UK from the European Union has added another problem – one of the politicians’ own making.

Concern mounts over a no-deal Brexit

October 2018

The UK financial establishment says it can cope if the UK crashes out of the EU, but behind the scenes panic seems close.

Pound-euro parity by mid-2019 if no deal on Brexit, says Argentex

October 2018

A boutique broker renowned for the accuracy of its currency forecasts has warned that a no-deal Brexit could see the pound fall to parity with the euro by the middle of next year.

ECR survey results Q3 2018: Analysts caution over EM sell-off, US-China tensions and Italian saga

October 2018

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Investor safety has come under close scrutiny since June, resulting in a small but discernible decline in the global average risk score, halting a four-quarter improving trend.

Calling the top for real estate?

September 2018

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Banks and non-banks are battling for market share in a property market that finally seems to be slowing down in the face of multiple headwinds.

Western Europe: M&A will not solve banks’ problems, warns SSM’s Angeloni

August 2018

Brexit-sparked competition from US banks a good thing, ECB supervisor says; Italian populism ‘a burdensome tax’ on banks.

BlackRock heads for Europe's core mid-market

July 2018

US asset manager sets sights on Germany with new direct lending fund.

We need to talk about UK banks

July 2018

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While analysts focus on net interest margins and the turning credit cycle, there is an extraordinary risk hiding in plain sight.

ECR survey results Q2 2018: Global risk subsides but the US, South Africa and Asian EMs dive as anxiety returns

July 2018

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Global risk subsided in the first half of the year, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey, with confidence in Europe maintained and commodity producers benefiting from better terms of trade. Yet with US interest rates rising, and Brexit, Russia and protectionism risks prevailing, investor prospects have more recently become uncertain for the remainder of 2018.

FX: MTFs still reluctant to move even as Brexit approaches 

June 2018 

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With less than 10 months to go until the UK formally leaves the European Union, most FX venues remain content to wait for the outcome of negotiations around key issues such as financial passporting before confirming their future strategy.



Estonian lender targets London’s fintechs 

April 2018

LHV looks to expand cryptocurrency customer base; UK head sees opportunities for EU banks in Brexit.


All change in Europe’s mid-market

April 2018

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In the post-Brexit vote uncertainty plaguing the UK, it is no surprise that mid-market bank lenders are being more cautious. 

Brexit threatens cross-border financial markets, MEP warns traders

March 2018

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Global cooperation between regulators must be preserved after the UK leaves the European Union, says Kay Swinburne.

Alternative awards of the year 2017

December 2017

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Social media influencer of the year: Blankfein and the Brexit tweets.


Carney warns UK banks might need more capital

November 2017

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UK banks scraped through the latest stress tests with no need to raise capital, but add a disorderly Brexit onto recession and overseas investor flight, and they could face serious trouble.


Regulation: English-law bonds could be excluded from MREL post-Brexit  November 2017

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Banks in the eurozone will not be able to count any of their English-law bail-inable debt toward their pending requirements if no Brexit deal is reached between the EU and UK – translating into some €126 billion of subordinated bonds.


Corporates question cash-pooling capabilities after Brexit  November 2017

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Clients are asking banks now how they will continue to operate their cash-management facilities after the UK leaves the EU, regardless of the outcome of negotiations.


Nation-first politics threaten financial market infrastructures, warns CLS

October 2017

Considering the impact of both the Trump administration in the US and the Brexit negotiations in the UK, Marquard and other panellists agreed that a short-term retreat from globalization could threaten the interconnectedness of the global financial system.

Seven things we learned in Washington – and you won’t believe number five

October 2017

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Brexit won't happen...


Optimism dominates in Washington despite geopolitical worries

October 2017

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A further year of coming to terms with the Brexit vote in the UK has hardly eased worries about its impact – if anything, fears being expressed privately are greater now than before, even if the public messaging is mostly a breezy get-on-with-it mentality.

African businesses see Brexit upside

October 2017

African economists and bankers expect more advantageous trade terms, possibly with both the UK and the European Union, after last year’s shock decision to leave.


Western Europe tries to retrofit itself for finance

July 2017

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Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin all hope to pick up at least some of the spoils of Brexit, but replicating the advantages of London and the UK is not so easy.


Banking: Focus shifting to second wave of Brexit

July 2017

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The banking industry has stopped fretting about a full-on Brexodus of jobs to other EU cities outside of London and started worrying about what comes next.


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British banks are best in breed

July 2017

With Brexit now upon us, as warnings abound of the damage it will inflict on the UK economy and the country’s financial sector, Euromoney follows its instincts and puts two British banks on our short list to be recognized as the world’s best.


Heightened risks are haunting UK investors

June 2017

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A year ago, the UK had stable government, a strong economy and a predictable trading relationship – now the opportunities are outweighed by the risks.


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FX: Weaker sterling here to stay 

June 2017 

From strong and stable to weak and jittery, the pound bore the brunt of the surprise UK general election result, but despite May’s quick move to form a working coalition government, sterling will likely stay soft, say analysts.

Brexit: Relocating? Let me call my cousin

June 2017

The one-year anniversary of the UK vote to leave the European Union is fast approaching and still most banks clustered in London haven’t disclosed plans to relocate staff to deal with EU clients, senior management to answer to regulators, or even any support staff.

Banking: The UK versus Europe

May 2017

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Continental European banks have long looked with envy over the English Channel – more than ever since the eurozone crisis – but with UK banks facing Brexit and a more advanced economic cycle, and as a degree of inflationary confidence returns to the eurozone, could the tables be turning?


Against the tide: Election summer surprises

April 2017

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By the time we get to the German federal elections in September, we should have a new pro-EU French president and a UK prime minister looking for a soft Brexit deal and willing to negotiate.


Surprise snap election rocks UK risk profile

April 2017

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"The risk scenario is if the Conservatives lose their majority, plunging the UK into political chaos during the Brexit negotiations, which would then be delayed."


Fears over access to capital push UK's country-risk score to new low

April 2017

Economic and political analysts are becoming more concerned about the UK’s future access to capital markets after Brexit, a fear that helped push the UK down one place on ECR's combined country risk scorecard in the first quarter of 2017.


ECR survey results Q1 2017: Europe marches on without the UK

April 2017

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Euromoney’s country risk survey shows disparate risk trends emerging in Q1 2017 as leading economists and political experts reassess their views on asset safety in the wake of changing commodity prices, currencies and populist political trends.


Brexit-related FX mis-selling claims hitting hurdles

April 2017

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Claims of FX derivatives mis-selling have spiked since the EU referendum, although the limited number of court cases brought to date indicates the difficulties faced by companies who feel they were sold products not appropriate for their hedging requirements.


Brexit is an apt end to RBS’s futile restructuring

April 2017

Williams & Glyn fits a pattern of how mishandled dealings with the UK government and the EU have overshadowed the banks’ wider recovery. Now, as the end to an epic restructuring nears, Brexit begins.

Against the tide: Populist threat held off but don’t expect bond rally

March 2017

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The populist surge is being restrained for now, but several factors are likely to drive up sovereign bond yields in Europe.

Eurozone corporates prepare to quit the UK

March 2017

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As Europe improves, corporate investment is rising – with one glaring exception.

Sterling rally has Brexit bears scratching their heads

March 2017

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Conventional wisdom says the UK’s forthcoming exit from the European Union will be bad for the pound, but after a year in which the UK currency has lost a fifth of its value on a trade-weighted basis, there are some in the FX markets who say the worst impacts of Brexit are already priced in.


UK banking: No wish for post-Brexit deregulation

February 2017

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Bankers in the UK have little if any appetite to row back on a decade of regulation they are just about getting used to.


Private equity: The beauty of being Brexit-proof

February 2017

It is not only banks that are wearily trying to assess the impact that the UK leaving the EU will have on their businesses – private equity firms are getting increasingly concerned too.


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Econ calls for ‘fair’ deal with UK on market access

February 2017

There may be yet some good news for UK based financial services in the wake of Brexit, if the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (Econ), a powerful committee within the EU Parliament, gets a draft resolution now being considered through to a plenary vote in its current form.


FX: Bad news better than no news as sterling surges on hard Brexit talk

January 2017

On a day many expected would see the pound sink to new depths, the currency instead responded to news that the UK would be leaving the single market by posting its best performance since the referendum – but whether the day marked a turning point or a mere relief rally, nobody can be sure.


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Against the tide: Italy – another victim of the anger vote

January 2017

With the sizeable majority voting no to political reform in the Italian referendum, the anger vote has claimed its next victim – Italy. The dominoes of Brexit, Trump and now Italy continue to fall.


Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2016: Italy, UK and US shocks underline the risks of populism, as oil exporters take a caning

January 2017

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ECR’s crowd-sourcing survey shows global risk rising in 2016, with leading economists and political experts revising their views on asset safety.


Trade Finance Survey 2017: Tough times in trade finance

January 2017

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The world seems to be turning away from globalization and towards protectionism. Yet despite this challenging environment for trade, the bankers who finance it remain surprisingly upbeat.


Country risk review 2016: Populism is risky

January 2017

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Euromoney Country Risk shows global risk rising, as leading economists and political experts revise their views on asset safety.


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Impact of Brexit on the City is as much about logistics as logic

December 2016

The question of banks moving to the mainland after Brexit will be settled at the dining table.


Year in data 2016: A watershed year for European bank shares

December 2016

For many European bank stocks, 2016 was an unrelentingly awful year.


2016: A rollercoaster year for foreign exchange

December 2016

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2016 will be remembered as the year the people punished politicians at the polls, unleashing a torrent of volatility in financial markets, with currencies taking a huge hit. Here are the biggest currency stories of 2016.


EU finance post-Brexit: London, Paris, Frankfurt … Vilnius? 

December 2016

Perhaps size is an advantage for an innovation centre – small size, that is. It means you are nimble. So says Lithuania.




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Capital markets: Has Brexit killed CMU?

November 2016

Capital markets activity in Europe is dominated by the UK, so the Brexit vote could have dealt a mortal blow to the European Commission’s plans to promote it through the capital markets union initiative. To survive, CMU will have to get global.


Brexit: FX hedging headache on the horizon

November 2016

UK businesses face a post-Brexit hedging headache, as FX protection purchased before the referendum is now running out for many companies. The cost of renewing it has subsequently sky rocketed.


Banking: CEOs call for regulatory harmony, time to digest change

November 2016

Brexit threatens eurozone, but region still crucial to global banks.


Dimon, Corbat and Gorman talk Brexit

October 2016

The topic of Brexit was never going to be far from the minds of delegates at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Institute of International Finance, both being held this week in Washington, DC. And on Friday afternoon, delegates got a chance to hear the views of three vocal US bank chief executives — Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Mike Corbat of Citi and James Gorman of Morgan Stanley.


Against the tide: Politics and economics – the anger vote

October 2016

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The European Project faces a much greater danger from the rise of populism than from the sovereign debt crisis.


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Real Estate Survey 2016: Brexit – mortal blow for bricks and mortar?

September 2016

UK commercial real estate’s post-Brexit shock has proved short-lived, and high-profile gating of investors in a number of UK real estate funds did not precipitate a flood of copy-cat behaviour. But the long-term outlook for investors and lenders in UK real estate remains extremely uncertain.


Brexit offers glimmer of hope for challenger banks

August 2016

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The UK’s challenger banks are stuck in a capital bind, forced to compete with each other on far worse terms than the big banks, but Brexit could offer a glimmer of hope.


FX recruitment holds firm after Brexit

August 2016

While market talk suggests a number of finance professionals are delaying planned moves to London and some hiring seems to have been put on hold, specialist FX recruiters claim it has largely been business as usual post-Brexit.

Brexit volatility fuels FX mis-selling claims

August 2016

Brexit-related currency volatility is fuelling a rise in foreign-exchange product mis-selling enquiries from businesses that have been burnt on ‘fiendishly complicated’ currency trades.

Treasurers left in the dark over ring-fencing plans

August 2016

The uncertainty created by the UK’s recent referendum decision to leave the European Union is making the country’s banks reluctant to discuss openly their plans for ring-fencing parts of their domestic operations. 

Real estate: Property fund gatings revive memories of 2008

August 2016

Brexit sparks investor flight; private equity sees an opening.

Check your hedges, Citi warns corporates, amid Brexit FX volatility

July 2016

The UK's decision to leave the EU has left corporates scrambling to review many aspects of their business to ensure they are able to withstand heightened volatility. Injecting a greater level of optionality into their hedging strategies is one way to protect themselves from increased uncertainty, says Citi.

Brexit is no disaster for the UK, but it has increased the risk of investing

July 2016

The swift formation of a new government and the opportunities created by the pound’s fall have quietened the doomsayers. But risk experts have downgraded their views on the economic outlook and government stability after the referendum, with so much that is still unknown.




Weak UK economy ties Bank of England's hands on FX intervention

July 2016

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New UK prime minister Theresa May is busy shaping her administration at 10 Downing Street, but it is events taking place barely miles away in Threadneedle Street that are exercising the minds of those trying to predict where the pound goes next.

What banks can learn from fintech CEOs’ reaction to Brexit

July 2016

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Start-ups fear a funding stop and loss of access to the single market, but are already making back-up plans that could point the way for their peers in the more established parts of UK finance.


Euromoney Country Risk survey results H1 2016: Global risk hits new high as Brexit adds to China and EM concerns

July 2015

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The UK’s decision to withdraw from the EU has opened a Pandora’s box for global investors at a time when commodity prices are depressed, sovereign bond yields are sinking to new lows and prospects are still dimming for many emerging markets (EMs).


Bank of England plots strategy to calm fretful markets

July 2016

The BoE still has plenty of monetary weapons in its policy arsenal, including expanding an asset-purchase programme akin to the ECB. But amid febrile market confidence, it needs to tread carefully.

FX: Uncertainty stalks sterling sales and trading post-Brexit vote

July 2016

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As market activity to some extent returns to normal after the immediate post-Brexit plunge, dealers and traders are searching for signs of how clients will behave over the coming weeks and months.

EU regulations to remain for years despite Brexit vote

July 2016



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UK-based financial institutions should expect the bulk of European Union regulations to remain in place up to and even after the UK's exit from the bloc, despite uncertainties over the terms of the eventual exit, lawyers say.

FX: Retail investors dodge sterling Brexit bullet

June 2016

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How and why trading was dominated by banks and ECNs, with retail investors cautious about getting steamrolled by volatility.


The cities seeking to take London’s FX crown

June 2016

Paris and other leading European cities will have their work cut out usurping London’s status as the continent’s leading FX centre, even if they succeed in undercutting London’s status as the centre for euro clearing.


FX traders pick through Brexit wreckage

June 2016

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Britain's vote to exit the European Union fired volatility back into currency markets and gave traders opportunities in a number of currency pairs, including minors and exotic currencies as well as the majors.


Macaskill on markets: Brexit and the merchant bankers

June 2016

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Brexit will deal a mighty blow to the international and diverse City of London that has thrived for 30 years – but investment banks have bigger worries than the location of their EU offices.


Brexit vote triggers market mayhem

June 2016

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The market tremors of the game-changing UK vote to leave the European Union will reverberate for years to come across global risk assets, the UK economy, banking stocks and currencies.


Brexit imperils City’s status as euro-clearing hub

June 2016 

 
The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to quickly challenge London’s status as the eurozone’s largest hub for the clearing of euro-denominated trades if the EU referendum goes against UK membership – but the move, which would be seen as highly political, would be beset with legal challenges.

Swedish krona in line of fire amid Brexit

June 2016

The Swedish krona is ranked as the third weakest currency in a Brexit scenario after sterling and euro, according to analysts.

Country risk: Experts say UK economy will quickly recover from Brexit shock

June 2016

The UK’s economic and structural ECR scores are holding up well despite the possibility that its people will vote to leave the European Union (EU) next week. The strength of the sovereign’s outlook means that if the UK did vote to leave, it could quickly recover from the ensuing drop in its risk score, claim several experts this week.

Brexit volatility triggers warnings on stop-loss orders

June 2016 

The potential for next week’s EU referendum to trigger a sizeable movement in sterling highlights the need for clients to review their use of stop-loss orders as a risk-management mechanism, amid memories of the SNB debacle. 

Organized trading facilities set to increase FX transparency

June 2016 

“Most likely they will register in the UK unless Brexit becomes a reality, in which case mainland Europe applications could begin to emerge, probably based in Frankfurt,” he says.

EU referendum: UK banks brace for Brexit risk

June 2016 

Existential threat to euro wholesale industry; Fears for loss of single-market passport.

Corporates hedge Brexit risk with FX forwards

May 2016

With the spectre of a 'Leave' vote predominating in the UK EU referendum hanging heavily over FX markets, corporates are likely to further increase their use of forwards as a hedging option.

FX risk management faces volatility challenge

May 2016 

The sheer volume of risks faced by the FX market is placing pressure on banks to create mitigation strategies to cover a wider range of market challenges, from Brexit to illiquidity.

Heightened concern over Brazil, China and other EMs accentuates global shock prospects

Country Risk Survey Q1 2016

Asia risk experts are, moreover, concerned by three issues: the possibility of Brexit causing ripple effects across the region; a stronger US dollar enticing capital outflow; and tensions in the South China Sea. 

USD: What a difference a year makes in FX

April 2016 

The US dollar has weakened against most major currencies this year, with the exclusion of the British pound, which is under pressure due to the threat of a potential Brexit.

UK and US – the not-so-special special relationship

Off message, April 2016

Brexit presents a fascinating situation for the financial services community.



 

Sterling volatility here to stay as referendum countdown begins February 2016 

The announcement of the referendum date of June 23 on UK membership of the European Union (EU) sent an already-weakening pound into a tailspin, which saw it testing multi-decade lows, but traders are divided on whether sterling has bottomed out as Brexit fears jump. Country risk: Global risk is as much political as economic

February 2016

The movement of peoples displaced by the warfare has increased political risk in Europe, and Syria’s problems are likely to be exacerbated by growing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This, in turn, will affect European economies, feed into the UK Brexit debate, influence the outcome of elections and affect the EU project as a whole, all of which have the potential to buffet the financial markets.



 

Cameron’s sterling effort

Against the tide, December 2015 

Britain’s renegotiation of its relationship with the EU could be a good thing for Europe too.

UK politics – Dependent and independent

Against the tide, June 2015

The newly elected Tory party must wrestle with an invigorated SNP and its old bête noire, the EU. The proposed in/out referendum will cast a long shadow over the UK.

General election a lose-lose event for UK banks

May 2015 

"The longer-term risk of a Conservative-led consortium is an in/out referendum on Europe by 2017, stoking increased fears of Brexit," says Ghose. "This could potentially have severe consequences for the UK banks, including reduced access to the single EU market if the current passporting rights cannot be renegotiated. This could potentially make corporate and investment banking untenable for global banks operating with a UK hub."

The fragmentation of Europe

Against the tide, March 2015

Political pressures and lack of growth have put the European project under threat. Reform is urgently needed to set Europe back on course. 

The year of the dollar bull

December 2014 

Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX strategy at Citi, says: “Investors don’t see any positive outcomes for GBP, with a Labour majority/coalition bad for business and Conservative majority/coalition raising prospects of Brexit.”




"I told him: if you think the French and the Germans are going to leave the position of London as a financial centre untouched you’re living in cloud-cuckoo land"  - A top investment banker on his words of warning to a senior Bank of England official about the implications of a Brexit 


Sterling safe from currency war but Brexit casts a shadow

January 2013

Improved eurozone sentiment has seen sterling lose its safe-haven status and has renewed worries about the UK’s credit rating.

Brexit will lead to 'years of uncertainty' for Britain

January 2013

A referendum to decide whether the UK should remain in the European Union could negatively affect trade and investment into the UK, say economists, though some businesses threw their weight behind David Cameron's announcement.

Fears over EU exit weigh heavy on City

RBS sponsored article, January 2013

After a couple of turbulent years worrying about Grexit – Greece being ejected from the euro – the City now has something closer to home to worry about: Brexit.

EU budget talks spark calls for a British exit

November 2012

Although a Brexit remains in the balance, real politics suggest the government will favour a less confrontational position in Europe, though it still remains a high-stake option for Britain to take.



Eurozone fragmentation: special focus








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