CE3 currencies prove resilient in carry trade unwinds

The CE3 currencies have outperformed much of the emerging-market FX complex through recent carry unwinds – perhaps surprisingly, given the relative popularity of these currencies as receivers on account of high domestic policy rates.

The recent outperformance of the Polish zloty, Czech koruna and Hungarian forint reflects the impact of domestic monetary policy and eurozone risk conditions on these currencies.

“CE3 FX is more sensitive to the euro and to eurozone rates and less sensitive than other emerging-market FX to the kind of broader currency moves and readjustment in US Federal Reserve easing expectations that impacted markets in August, for example,” says Nicholas Rees, senior FX market analyst at Monex.

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