Argentina: Milei risk is not all to the upside
Markets jump on the news that Javier Milei will be Argentina’s next president. A large devaluation is needed, but that leads to the risk of deposit flight.
Internationally registered Argentine assets rallied strongly in the first trading session on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday following Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election run-off.
While Argentine markets were closed for a national holiday, international stocks of Argentine banks soared by double-digits, and energy companies also saw strong jumps in trading.
ADRs in Banco Galicia rose by 21.8% in the first two hours of trading, Grupo Supervielle rose 19%, Banco Macro rose by 18.3% and BBVA Argentina increased 17.7%. Meanwhile YPF gained 40% and Pampa Energia 21.8%.
There is a case to be made for trying something new when everything else has failed, but in Argentina’s case it has already tried dollarization – and failed
Outstanding dollar-denominated sovereign debt also rallied, on average by a couple of points, as New York trading opened, though pared some of the initial gains as the day progressed and, at an average of around 30 cents on the dollar, still reflects market expectations that another round of debt restructuring will be necessary early in the new administration.