Are China’s LGFVs the next shoe to drop?

Chinese investors are buying bonds issued by local government financing vehicles as fast as they’re printed – due to a cratered property sector, a lack of other buying options and a perception it’s a safe asset class. But analysts warn LGFV defaults are imminent and could result in a wave of credit events.

China’s local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are a baffling construct. They emerged in the wake of the global financial crisis, as Beijing sought ways to inject life into provincial cities.

In other countries, these off-budget organizations, which help local officials raise money to splash out on big projects – usually infrastructure – would by now have been wound up.

But China is not built that way.

They hung around, growing ever-more bloated with debt. At the end of 2021, total LGFV debt was Rmb54.4