Wall Street focuses on stimulus as US election goes down to the wire
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Wall Street focuses on stimulus as US election goes down to the wire

Whoever eventually wins the US election, stock markets will likely do well thanks to Fed QE enabling fiscal stimulus, but polarization itself is a threat.

Donald Trump at a campaign rally on Tuesday

With postal votes still being counted and legal challenges prepared, financial markets will remain unsettled until a result finally emerges from the US election.

So, ignore short-term market volatility. Remember, instead, that quick takes are often wrong.

The initial stock market reaction to Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 was for S&P futures to be 5% limit down even before the market opened the next day, and then a swift cash market sell-off.

The rebound followed within days and lasted for much of the next three years. Wall Streeters, who mostly failed to predict Trump’s win, soon decided his agenda of tax cuts and deregulation would suit them just nicely, thank you.

If Trump remains in the White House, the US stock market will do well, so say the army of people paid to take cash from the rest of us in exchange for financial assets, as they claim it also will if Joe Biden replaces him.

What are we even worrying about?

Fed fundamentals

And while the world waits, the US election already has a winner: Jerome Powell. Elections matter for markets: fundamentals matter more.


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