Against the tide: The stock and flow of economic recovery

The authorities have run out of ways to deal with the debt overhang and to create new credit. The only palatable way out looks to be a period of generalized inflation

The rate of global economic decline has peaked but the world economy is still contracting. Deleveraging has a long way to go and the debt overhang will restrict the pace of any subsequent economic recovery.

The core problem remains the overwhelming burden of debt throughout the financial system and the continuing incapacity of borrowers to service it. This concept of stock and flow is central to how investors need to think about recovery. The authorities have done much to ease the short-term flow issues (debt service, etc) by borrowing from future generations to bail out today’s.

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