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Country risk: Country risk revisited

Country risk: How the mighty are falling

September 1, 1998

Country risk: How the mighty are falling

Country risk: Reasons for big changes

Country risk: Methodology

Rank: Sep Rank: Dec Change: Sept-Dec   Total score Political risk Economic performance Debt indicators Debt in default or rescheduled Credit ratings Access to bank finance Access to short-term finance Access to capital markets Discount on forfaiting
98 97   Weighting: 100 25 25 10 10 10 5 5 5 5
1 2 1 Luxembourg 98.9 24.76 25 10 10 10 5 5 5 4.14
2 1 -1 United States 97.85 24.97 22.88 10 10 10 5 5 5 5
3 6 3 Germany 97.06 24.89 22.21 10 10 10 5 5 5 4.96
4 3 -1 Netherlands 96.92 24.84 22.57 10 10 10 5 5 5 4.5
5 10 5 Austria 96.79 24.19 22.65 10 10 10 5 5 5 4.95
6 7 1 Switzerland 96.43 25 21.45 10 10 10 5 5 5 4.99
7 11 4 France 95.87 24.22 21.69 10 10 10 5 5 5 4.96
8 4 -4 Norway 95.83 22.91 23.03 10 10 10 5 5 5 4.89
9 5 -4 United Kingdom 95.01 25 20.04 10 10 10 5 5 5 4.97
10 12 2 Ireland 94.87 23.02 22.61 10 10 9.57 5 5 5 4.66
11 9 -2 Denmark 94.67 23.74 21.91 10 10 9.36 5 5 5 4.66
12 13 1 Finland 94.52 22.54 22.47 10 10 9.57 5 5 5 4.93
13 14 1 Belgium 94.25 23.72 21.01 10 10 9.57 5 5 5 4.95
14 15 1 Sweden 93.39 23.25 21.49 10 10 8.72 5 5 5 4.93
15 8 -7 Canada 93.02 22.98 21.21 10 10 8.94 5 5 5 4.89
16 19 3 Spain 92.01 22.24 21.33 10 10 9.15 5 4.64 5 4.64
17 20 3 New Zealand 91.34 22.23 19.86 10 10 9.36 5 5 5 4.89
18 22 4 Italy 91.1 21.66 20.57 10 10 8.94 5 5 5 4.93
19 17 -2 Australia 90.91 22.6 20.51 10 10 8.72 5 5 5 4.07
20 21 1 Portugal 90.73 21.76 21.34 10 10 8.94 5 4.64 5 4.04
21 16 -5 Singapore 89.17 23.29 19.24 10 10 9.68 5 4.64 4.3 3.02
22 24 2 Iceland 89.03 21.38 21.17 10 10 7.77 5 4.64 5 4.07
23 18 -5 Japan 88.02 23.39 15.85 10 10 10 5 5 5 3.79
24 23 -1 Taiwan 86.49 22.28 19.52 10 10 8.72 5 4.64 3.3 3.02
25 26 1 Cyprus 81.92 18.69 18.22 10 10 7.45 5 4.64 5 2.92
26 47 21 Malta 81.75 19.84 21.94 10 10 6.81 5 4.64 0 3.52
27 32 5 Greece 79.61 18.03 18.01 10 10 4.89 5 4.64 5 4.04
28 27 -1 United Arab Emirates 79.38 19.2 17.51 10 10 6.81 5 4.02 3.3 3.54
29 28 -1 Kuwait 77.7 18.34 17.5 10 10 6.38 5 4.4 2.72 3.36
30 31 1 Chile 76.6 18.56 17.29 8.63 10 5.96 5 3.75 3.4 4.02
31 33 2 Israel 76.06 17.22 15.96 10 10 6.17 5 4.35 3.77 3.59
32 25 -7 Hong Kong 75.75 19.32 16.2 10 10 7.02 5 5 3.21 0
33 37 4 Slovenia 74.49 17.56 17.34 9.57 10 6.38 3.04 3.45 3.58 3.56
34 34 0 Saudi Arabia 73.68 17.43 15.2 10 10 4.26 5 4.64 3.68 3.47
35 41 6 Qatar 72.68 16.77 14.53 10 10 4.89 5 4.64 3.3 3.54
36 42 6 Bahrain 71.97 15.77 16.52 10 10 3.62 5 4.64 3.06 3.36
37 43 6 Oman 71.47 16.74 14.23 10 10 4.57 5 4.64 3.11 3.18
38 48 10 Poland 71.11 17.6 18.45 9.5 10 4.47 0.22 3.21 3.87 3.79
39 45 6 Hungary 71.06 17.16 17.84 8.02 10 4.68 3.58 2.44 4.06 3.29
40 44 4 Czech Republic 71.01 17.58 16.99 9.34 10 5.96 1.14 3.15 3.96 2.88
41 39 -2 China 67.26 17.08 16.32 9.65 10 5.96 0.01 2.68 2.83 2.74
42 30 -12 South Korea 64.47 15.11 14.06 10 10 3.62 5 3.87 2.26 0.55
43 52 9 Tunisia 63.43 15.43 15.16 8.86 10 4.26 0.1 3.45 3.02 3.15
44 58 14 Uruguay 62.88 13.06 17.42 9.19 10 4.26 0.05 3.33 2.74 2.83
45 56 11 Colombia 62.85 13.31 13.68 8.59 10 4.26 3.09 3.51 3.11 3.29
46 99 53 Trinidad & Tobago 61.99 17.74 16.52 9.02 10 3.62 0 3.21 1.89 0
47 50 3 Mexico 61.75 14.25 15.16 8.38 10 2.98 1.69 3.48 3.3 2.51
48 54 6 Argentina 61.33 13.73 15.58 8.36 10 2.77 1.05 4.17 3.4 2.29
49 62 13 Egypt 61.22 14.83 15.01 9.12 9.93 4.04 0 2.5 2.64 3.15
50 46 -4 South Africa 61.09 14.96 13.26 9.53 10 3.62 0.07 3.51 3.4 2.74
51 60 9 Estonia 61.08 13.52 15.88 9.95 10 5.32 0 2.01 2.49 1.92
52 63 11 Botswana 59.85 15.9 19.05 9.81 10 0 0 3.51 1.58 0
53 35 -18 Malaysia 59.7 15.25 12.47 9.28 10 4.47 3.22 3.51 1.51 0
54 51 -3 Thailand 59.24 14 12.26 9.05 10 3.83 4.23 2.98 2.26 0.64
55 57 2 Philippines 58.42 13.69 14.54 9.04 10 3.62 1.3 3.33 2.17 0.73
56 69 13 Morocco 57.9 13.1 14.04 8.42 10 3.3 0.12 3.1 2.94 2.88
57 64 7 Latvia 57.65 12.65 13.99 9.92 10 4.89 0 2.01 2.26 1.92
58 61 3 Slovak Republic 57.35 13.11 13.08 9.17 10 4.04 1.66 2.22 2.6 1.46
59 53 -6 India 57.11 14.46 13.86 9.05 10 3.3 0.14 1.67 2.17 2.47
60 68 8 Costa Rica 56.28 13.48 16.94 9.16 10 2.98 0 3.15 0.57 0
61 59 -2 Turkey 56.22 13.48 13.72 8.86 10 1.49 1.35 3.21 2.64 1.46
62 70 8 Lithuania 56.2 11.6 14.21 9.79 10 3.83 0.3 2.01 2.55 1.92
63 66 3 Jordan 55.15 12.89 15.21 8.09 9.33 2.34 0 1.79 2.45 3.04
64 114 50 Dominican Republic 54.8 16.82 14.34 9.3 9.93 1.7 0 2.32 0.38 0
65 86 21 Jamaica 54.38 16.36 12.56 8.22 10 2.34 0 2.92 1.98 0
66 72 6 Croatia 54.29 11.97 13.65 9.61 5.59 4.26 1.87 1.64 2.83 2.88
67 65 -2 El Salvador 53.03 10.95 14.53 9.45 10 3.62 0 3.21 1.27 0
68 73 5 Lebanon 53.01 11.13 10.65 9.47 10 2.13 1.73 1.96 2.92 3.02
69 36 -33 Brunei 52.79 20.55 0 10 10 0 5 4.4 2.83 0
70 67 -3 Brazil 52.56 11.69 12.92 8.57 9.98 1.91 1.7 1.55 2.83 1.42
71 55 -16 Panama 51.4 12.56 16.44 8.55 3.35 4.26 0.59 3.48 2.17 0
72 75 3 Peru 50.43 10.89 14.51 8.37 7.25 2.66 0.16 2.62 2.04 1.92
73 76 3 Guatemala 49.37 9.31 13.97 9.45 10 2.98 0 3.1 0.57 0
74 131 57 St Lucia 48.04 18.78 6.59 9.67 10 0 0 2.62 0.38 0
75 81 6 Paraguay 47.83 10.1 13.03 9.64 10 1.7 0.07 2.92 0.38 0
76 71 -5 Venezuela 47.33 9.83 11.66 8.87 10 1.91 0.39 2.86 1.81 0
77 38 -39 Mauritius 47.32 15.44 0 9.3 10 4.89 0.27 3.51 1.98 1.92
78 84 6 Bolivia 47.16 11.26 12.88 8.03 8.83 2.02 0.91 2.08 1.13 0
79 87 8 Papua New Guinea 47.15 10.48 12.22 9.05 10 0 2.16 2.86 0.38 0
80 80 0 Fiji 46.91 11.32 13.1 9.87 10 0 0 2.62 0 0
81 82 1 Kazakhstan 46.73 7.5 12.02 9.64 10 2.55 1.66 1.56 1.79 0
82 74 -8 Romania 46.25 10.27 9.6 9.41 10 2.13 0.05 1.98 1.36 1.46
83 83 0 Sri Lanka 45.65 10.53 12.64 9.06 10 0 0 2.38 1.04 0
84 40 -44 Bahamas 44.89 19.02 12.79 0 0 6.17 0 4.64 2.26 0
85 79 -6 Ghana 44.87 10.61 11.18 7.89 9.86 0 2.57 2.38 0.38 0
86 100 14 Ecuador 44.84 8.13 12.35 8.27 9.97 1.7 0 2.92 1.51 0
87 77 -10 Vietnam 43.97 10.11 11.04 8.33 9.91 1.7 0 1.96 0.91 0
88 49 -39 Indonesia 43.56 8.89 8.49 8.18 10 0.21 3.97 2.5 1.32 0
89 110 21 Iran 43.26 10.74 9.66 9.92 10 0 0 1.16 0.23 1.55
90 95 5 Zimbabwe 43.22 9.4 9.81 8.5 10 0 1.25 3.21 1.04 0
91 90 -1 Uganda 43 7.85 14.09 8.65 10 0 0 2.02 0.38 0
92 97 5 Côte d’Ivoire 42.71 8.73 11.37 6.41 9.78 0 2.61 2.68 1.13 0
93 101 8 Bulgaria 42.3 9.4 10.3 7.95 9.98 1.38 0.43 1.55 1.32 0
94 98 4 Gabon 42.26 8.66 13.72 8.53 8.47 0 0 2.5 0.38 0
95 106 11 Senegal 42.24 7.74 13.31 8.6 9.78 0 0 2.44 0.38 0
96 93 -3 Bangladesh 41.45 8.24 11.55 9.04 10 0 0 2.38 0.23 0
97 89 -8 Barbados 41.43 16.21 6.9 0 10 3.62 0 3.57 1.13 0
98 96 -2 Kenya 40.97 8.96 10.47 8.2 10 0 0 2.32 1.02 0
99 103 4 Syria 40.58 9.43 9.23 8.11 10 0 0 1.25 0.28 2.29
100 108 8 Mali 40.47 7.96 11.94 7.91 9.91 0 0 2.38 0.38 0
101 158 57 Guyana 40.44 13.24 11.24 6.53 7.62 0 0 1.43 0.38 0
102 136 34 Honduras 40.32 8.37 10.86 7.66 9.79 0 1.06 2.2 0.38 0
103 111 8 Algeria 39.64 9.38 10.25 8.2 8.47 0 0 1.96 1.02 0.37
104 143 39 St Vincent & Grenadines 39.41 17.47 0 8.71 10 0 0 2.86 0.38 0
105 92 -13 Uzbekistan 39.03 5.55 10.62 9.75 10 0 0 1.55 1.56 0
106 91 -15 Nepal 38.8 9.61 6.9 9.11 10 0 0 2.8 0.38 0
107 102 -5 Yemen 38.73 8.3 10.19 8.3 10 0 0 1.56 0.38 0
108 161 53 Haiti 38.16 7.39 10.16 9.22 9.97 0 0 1.43 0 0
109 162 53 Grenada 37.76 15.25 0 9.52 10 0 0 2.62 0.38 0
110 146 36 Dominica 37.75 15.51 0 9.24 10 0 0 2.62 0.38 0
111 148 37 Mongolia 37.71 7.09 10.31 9.04 10 0 0 0.89 0.38 0
112 105 -7 Burkina Faso 37.71 5.99 10.7 9.07 9.52 0 0 2.14 0.28 0
113 137 24 Ethiopia 37.51 5.42 13.88 6.4 10 0 0 1.43 0.38 0
114 29 -85 Bermuda 37.38 21.53 0 0 0 8.94 0 4.64 2.26 0
115 112 -3 Benin 37.33 3.77 13.41 8.86 8.88 0 0 2.02 0.38 0
116 142 26 Azerbaijan 37.28 5 10.43 9.89 10 0 0 0.89 1.06 0
117 128 11 Madagascar 36.83 8.04 9.02 8.32 10 0 0 1.07 0.38 0
118 134 16 Ukraine 36.38 5.63 7.76 9.64 10 1.06 0.18 1.55 0.57 0
119 109 -10 Namibia 36.3 15.25 17.45 0 0 0 0 2.62 0.99 0
120 107 -13 Tanzania 36.14 6.21 11.05 7.66 9.94 0 0.02 0.89 0.38 0
121 113 -8 Cameroon 36.1 6.31 10.52 7.79 9.04 0 0 1.7 0.75 0
122 127 5 Togo 36.09 5.03 11.17 8.27 9.7 0 0 1.55 0.38 0
123 88 -35 Pakistan 35.92 6.8 7.42 8.64 10 0.11 0.69 1.31 0.94 0
124 121 -3 Niger 35.76 6.29 9.07 8.46 9.41 0 0 2.14 0.38 0
125 144 19 Turkmenistan 35.45 5.68 6.9 9.55 10 1.06 0 1.55 0.71 0
126 124 -2 Guinea 35.39 4.9 10.78 8.45 10 0 0 0.89 0.38 0
127 78 -49 Russia 35.28 5.35 8.26 9.52 9.28 0 0 1.92 0.94 0
128 145 17 Kyrgyz Republic 34.18 5.42 11.5 9.14 6.09 0 0 0.89 1.13 0
129 116 -13 Malawi 34.09 6.22 7.99 8.02 10 0 0 1.49 0.38 0
130 155 25 Central African Republic 34.05 2.93 10.93 8.64 10 0 0 1.55 0 0
131 122 -9 Belize 33.75 11.14 0 9.07 10 0 0 3.15 0.38 0
132 117 -15 Nigeria 33.64 3.72 9.98 8.2 10 0 0 0.89 0.85 0
133 118 -15 Chad 33.61 2.34 11.24 8.57 9.53 0 0 1.55 0.38 0
134 149 15 Georgia 33.53 8.3 10.61 9.69 3.46 0 0 0.89 0.57 0
135 154 169 Albania 32.97 4.53 7.48 9.61 10 0 0 0.89 0.45 0
136 115 -21 Zambia 32.84 4.98 10.62 6.25 9.63 0 0.09 0.89 0.38 0
137 119 -18 Armenia 32.73 4.77 8.06 9.3 9.14 0 0 0.89 0.57 0
138 94 -44 Vanuatu 32.14 9.55 0 9.79 10 0 0 2.8 0 0
139 125 -14 Lesotho 32.11 9.22 0 9.18 10 0 0 3.33 0.38 0
140 157 17 Tonga 32.03 9.8 0 9.44 10 0 0 2.8 0 0
141 138 -3 Maldives 31.78 9.42 0 9.19 10 0 0 2.8 0.38 0
142 104 -38 Moldova 31.74 4.43 6.32 9.24 8.01 1.06 0 1.55 1.13 0
143 132 -11 FYR Macedonia 31.72 5.23 6.36 8.79 9.37 0 0 1.55 0.42 0
144 135 -9 Belarus 31.67 3.96 6.4 10 10 0 0.05 0.89 0.38 0
145 166 21 Gambia 31.4 7.96 12.17 0 10 0 0 0.89 0.38 0
146 130 -16 Solomon Islands 31.13 8.89 0 9.44 10 0 0 2.8 0 0
147 126 -21 Swaziland 30.94 7.49 0 9.74 10 0 0 3.33 0.38 0
148 133 -15 Western Samoa 30.88 9.61 0 8.64 9.82 0 0 2.8 0 0
149 151 2 Cape Verde 30.62 5.49 3.8 9.5 10 0 0 1.55 0.28 0
150 123 -27 Seychelles 29.93 5.87 0 9.58 10 0 0 4.11 0.38 0
151 167 16 Bhutan 29.76 7.45 0 9.48 9.89 0 0 2.56 0.38 0
152 140 -12 Laos 28.65 5.73 3.49 8.16 10 0 0 0.89 0.38 0
153 139 -14 Myanmar 27.43 5.97 9.38 0 10 0 0 1.7 0.38 0
154 164 10 Mozambique 26.69 4.39 7.91 3.64 9.47 0 0 0.89 0.38 0
155 141 -14 Nicaragua 25.59 7.07 3.26 4.19 8.21 1.06 0 1.43 0.38 0
156 120 -36 Macau 25.47 16.53 0 0 0 5.53 0 1.9 1.51 0
157 163 6 Congo 25.22 4.16 4.65 5.34 9.28 0 0 1.79 0 0
158 153 -5 Sierra Leone 24.21 2.37 4.5 6.74 9.71 0 0 0.89 0 0
159 150 -9 Cambodia 23.48 3.23 0 9.09 9.92 0 0 0.89 0.34 0
160 172 12 Equatorial Guinea 23.11 2.87 0 8.14 10 0 0 1.73 0.38 0
161 159 -2 Rwanda 21.71 1.36 0 8.39 10 0 0 1.96 0 0
162 156 -6 Libya 21.57 10.07 9.85 0 0 0 0 1.43 0.23 0
163 160 -3 Mauritania 20.75 3.07 0 6.16 9.6 0 0 1.55 0.38 0
164 152 -12 Angola 20.73 3.02 3.61 5.24 7.97 0 0 0.89 0 0
165 165 0 Democratic Rep.

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