FX research roundup: Will payrolls make a difference?

It’s never sensible to stick your neck out too far the day before non-farm payrolls. So here goes: it is difficult to see the figure overturning the current bullish EUR/USD consensus, notwithstanding better than expected ADP data and continuing falls in jobless claims.

Few in the market can have expected the ECB president to use the term “strong vigilance” in his remarks. While this is seen as tantamount to saying that a rise in rates is imminent, it begs the question: why, in that case, weren’t rates raise immediately?

EUR/USD bears (order books on Wednesday were said to be alarmingly skewed to the downside) with deep pockets might draw comfort from the failure of the market to breach 1.40

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