ECR Country view: Five reasons why 2011 will see renewed violence in Kyrgyzstan (and one reason why it won’t)

Five reasons for: 1. A Fragile Coalition: Unusually for Central Asia, the election in October of an interim government led by President Roza Otunbayeva was judged by international investors to have been a fair contest. However, it remains to be seen whether the new parliamentary system adopted since the deposing of Kurmanbek Bakiyev last summer can be made to work as a system of government. The coalition between the SDPK, Ata-Meken and Respublika parties has already fallen apart once in December after the Ata-Meken party leader, Omurbek Tekebayev, failed to win election as parliamentary speaker. The dispute was eventually resolved, but tensions remain over which parties will control key government posts. The number of parties in the already stretched coalition may soon increase to four if, as many observers predict, the nationalist Ata-Jurt party are invited to join. The party has close links to former President Bakiyev, but its strong electoral base in the south may help remove the perception that the government is northern-dominated.