Global risk subsided in the first half of the year, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey, with confidence in Europe maintained and commodity producers benefiting from better terms of trade.
The new government has inherited a mess, with Euromoney’s survey signalling a further rise in risk in Q2 2018, but ECR experts believe proactive leadership can suitably address the issues.
Risk experts are taking a dim view of Turkey’s prospects with the lira nosediving.
When the World Cup fanfare is over, investors must gauge whether the country represents a better bet than other emerging markets – and there are still some nagging doubts.
Ukraine’s consistent, gradual improvement could be a gamble worth taking, especially with attention focused on trade wars, the eurozone and North Korea.
The crisis in Italy has rocked European assets, but Portugal’s longer-term prospects are bright.
Political uncertainty and over-reliance on external borrowing make the country more vulnerable than lower-rated sovereigns.
The new government is imminent and is expected to announce policies that will cause financial markets to turn their attentions from the recovering economy to unorthodox populism.
The new president has made the start required to ensure investors take notice, with higher oil prices increasing liquidity, corruption addressed and business regulation improving.
Both countries are facing elections, but the Asian borrower has more convincing risk metrics.
Senior institutional investors from around the world assess their sell-side banks and brokerage firms for Asian equities.
The country will need to provide a more convincing structural reform plan to correct the fiscal deficit and put the debt on a sustainable path.
The risk picture has improved, but geopolitical tensions over North Korea, Russia and Syria, the prospect of global trade wars and other concerns including monetary tightening remain key threats, warn analysts.
Although the borrower is evidently making progress, investors must be prepared for setbacks given the enormous economic and political challenges still to overcome.
The sovereign borrower is upgraded by risk experts as it continues along the path towards EU accession.
The country will remain closed politically, but the authorities seem more determined than ever to address the fiscal problem, and that can only further improve an investor outlook underpinned by market-based economic reforms.
Euromoney’s risk survey suggests it should have been lower in the first place.
Changing attitudes are tempting investors, but assured political reforms are likely to go unaddressed.
The country is enjoying Goldilocks conditions, with strong growth, low inflation and no notable fiscal problems to concern investors, but with elections this year, and credit risk heightened, the goods times might not last.
The elections will deliver a new government, but the old challenges remain.
Investor risk is heightened by the general election on July 1 and analysts fear it could see structural reforms undermined, weighing on economic growth potential.
Several of the region’s emerging markets (EMs) were upgraded by analysts in 2017, and with economic growth predictions now being raised, 2018 could provide more of the same.
The largest economy in Africa is coping better and investors are returning, but a slowly improving risk score must not be confused with a high-risk ranking.
The borrower is a higher-risk option, but its fortunes are improving.
Central banks pumped in more liquidity, inflation was held at bay and global trade thrived, but can favourable conditions continue in 2018?