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September 1998

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LATEST ARTICLES

  • On a lighter note, we say goodbye for the time being to our resident US banker, Herbie. Herbie first started writing home to Mom in 1969. A firm believer that friends are God's apology for relations, he has spent the last 28 years based in London, as far from his mother as possible, though every faithful month his letters home have kept her, and you, abreast of the latest financial happenings. In the process he has chronicled, mocked and satirized most of the key events in the life of the modern capital markets.
  • The bad times are far from over for Hong Kong. The financial crisis that has engulfed Asia is continuing to put enormous pressure on the once-vibrant local banking sector. Profits are down and bad and doubtful loans have soared. But in spite of the deteriorating operating environment, bankers are scrambling to maximize existing sources of income and to identify new ones.
  • When Russia announced a moratorium on its debt payments and a rouble devaluation, Latin American debt traders had only one thing to say: "The markets are closed."
  • Russia's infamous "dark soul" is alive, if not well. In an article in a recent issue of Novaya Gazeta, Sergei Mavrodi, the architect of the MMM pyramid scheme that swindled millions of Russians out of their life savings, says that nothing would have persuaded him to invest in Russian government treasury bills (GKOs), which he calls "a low-tech version" of his own scam.
  • Economists and academics will long ponder why east Asia's currencies have depreciated so much. Euromoney thinks it may have found the answer - perhaps each country is trying to outdo the others for the title of cheapest currency in Asia.
  • What's behind Lehman Brothers' decision to form an executive committee? The news this August that the heads of the major businesses would join chief executive Richard Fuld in a six-member committee came four years after Lehman split from its marriage with American Express Bank. Ostensibly, the team is being set up to formulate strategy.
  • Is it a correction rather than a crisis? Perhaps, but consider this sobering list of 31 crises, prepared by Tim Bond, a strategist at Barclays Capital. His conclusion? "A western equity market crash will complete this litany of disasters ... since [equities] are mispriced by most yardsticks and since their fundamentals are daily worsening."
  • Euromoney lost a great mentor and friend on September 1. Vere Harmsworth, the third Viscount Rothermere, died unexpectedly at 73.
  • "If anyone can rescue Liffe, he can." That seems to be the word on Brian Williamson, who in July put his initial reluctance to one side and agreed to become the London International Financial Futures & Options Exchange's first full-time - and salaried - chairman.
  • During the crisis in emerging markets, equity fund managers that have invested in Asia, Latin America and eastern Europe are most concerned with their exposures to specific countries. How much do they have in Russia, how much in Indonesia? According to a report by ING Barings, however, those portfolios managers may be asking the wrong questions. They should be analyzing how much they have in value stocks, how much in growth.
  • Imagine the volume of issuance if German mortgage banks were allowed to securitize their home loan portfolios. What if Germany's big commercial banks could turn their loan books into CLOs and sell them to bond and commercial paper investors? Well now they can. German banks will issue Dm20 billion in asset-backed securities this year. As Euan Hagger reports, the market should get much bigger.
  • Brazil long needed a heavyweight in the central bank chair and now it's got one. Gustavo Franco earned his spurs in last October's Asian meltdown. His policy regime, especially the use of capital controls, is being studied around the world. Brian Caplen reports.
  • The appointment of David Robins and Malcolm Le May as respectively chief executive and head of global corporate finance at ING Barings reunites the two former UBS management partners whose high profile should go some way to reassuring insiders and clients about their new employer's commitment to investment banking.
  • Hank Paulson, appointed co-chairman and co-chief executive (to serve alongside Jon Corzine) of Goldman Sachs in June, is known for being intensely hard-working - although he says he has never prided himself on trying to work more hours a day than anyone else. A committed and active conservationist (along with his wife), he also likes to spend his holidays in the wild outdoors.
  • When their country was isolated by sanctions, South African banks had it easy. Now foreign competitors are eating away at their share of the most profitable business. Sam Swiss reports.
  • For foreigners, Japan is a topsy-turvy land where economic theory stands on its head. Nowhere more so than in the banking sector, a gravity-defying edifice which appears to be propping up the entire economy. If you were to rebuild it, you wouldn't start from here. But it has a terrifying logic, eloquently defended by Japan's elite. And remember, they wouldn't be in this mess if the Basle committee had been tougher 10 years ago. Steven Irvine reports.
  • European cartel watchdogs swooped on seven Austrian banks in June believing there was evidence of a price-fixing ring. Not so, say Austrian bankers, just an informal luncheon club. What's the truth? And what triggered the interest from Brussels? It's a story of Euro-politics, cut-throat competition, a little history and a tragic suicide. David Shirreff reports.
  • From the Silk Road, to Basingstoke, to Buenos Aires, the HSBC Group has grown into one of the most formidable names in international banking. Its recent spurt of acquisitions - which have made it the most profitable bank in the world three years running - were masterminded by the workaholic Scotsman William Purves, who gave up the role of chairman this year. His long-time deputy, John Bond, is today the taipan of a bancassurance group that grew out of the old HongkongBank founded in 1865 in a diversification strategy that is looking wiser by the day.
  • The words "frying pan" and "fire" spring to mind. Sitting in his office overlooking the trading floor, Alexander Knaster, CSFB's Moscow president, discusses his move to Alfa Bank, where from October 4 he will take over the newly merged commercial and investment banking operation. Though troubled, CSFB remains the market leader in almost all areas of investment banking in Russia. Knaster's new employer, by contrast, was the house bank of one of Russia's weaker financial-industrial groups. Now it is being thrown into an ill-defined merger with Inkombank and the National Reserve Bank in a desperate bid to survive.
  • George Jedlicka, managing director and chairman of Expandia Finance finds it hard to call Tomas Pardubicky, his colleague, Mr Pardubicky, as formality demands. It's understandable: Pardubicky is a fresh-faced 23-year-old who has been at Expandia just a year and confesses that he is still finishing a university degree. With a laugh, Jedlicka gives up, and reverts to the more familiar Tomas.
  • Banks in the Middle East and North Africa generally performed well in 1997 despite hits in the second half from falling oil prices and Asian economic turmoil. Even where oil economies have successfully diversified, though, 1998 looks like being a tougher prospect. Banks in the region will therefore need to look harder at consolidation and cost-cutting. Andrew Beikos and Anthony Christofides report.
  • Mexican corporates are raring to go but the borrowing outlook is grim. International markets are expensive, the local banking sector weak. The big names can raise funds but may be hit because their customers are cash-strapped. By Matthew Doman.
  • Their mission is the same: to hunt down and execute mandates. They're all winners. Yet their tactics differ greatly, reflecting the varied cast of characters now reigning on Wall Street - tough New Yorkers, Cuban exiles, a laid-back Brazilian, an English lawyer, even a Senegalese photographer. Brian Caplen investigates the mix.
  • When Hotman Hutapea, Indonesia's premier bankruptcy advocate, presented his first case to the new commercial court on September 1, he set telephones ringing in bank offices all over town. "Now they believe it," says one senior banker. "They see they'd better do a deal - or else."
  • It's a measure of the turmoil in world markets that not a single bank was at first prepared to supply the forfaiting rates used by Euromoney in its calculation of these country-risk rankings. So fast were things changing that even these usually stable indicators became too volatile. Banks supplied them on request on a day-by-day basis to clients an indication of how difficult trade finance, the lubricant of the real economy, was becoming.
  • Ukraine has been pushed to the brink by Russia's financial turmoil and the government's resistance to reform. The treasury bill market needs restructuring or there will be default, equity trading has ground to a standstill, and foreign investors are counting the days until they can get their money out of the country. Theodore Kim reports.
  • Foreign banks are trying to sell investment-banking services in Croatia but so far with limited success. Delays in state sell-offs and corporate restructuring aren't helping. By Charles Olivier.
  • Outside it is a bright, warm summer's day and the narrow streets of Prague are thronged with tourists. Inside the faceless municipal building that houses the new Czech Securities Commission (CSC) the light is thick and gloomy and there is an almost unnatural quiet. It may reveal a sense of anticipation. Equally, it could be foreboding.
  • The price of failure is not something that traders like to contemplate, no matter how used to it they have become during the summer financial market crisis. But in the first weeks of 1999, they may be forced to confront failure on an unprecedented scale; the introduction of the euro could make it inevitable.
  • Could it be true that Deutsche Bank was considering a bid for JP Morgan in mid-August? Deutsche was supposedly offering $175 a share in cash, 49% above the closing price the day before. But pooled accounting is forbidden by German law, so Deutsche's capital ratios would have fallen to an unsustainable and illegal level had the deal gone ahead. And Deutsche's recent history is hardly such as to endear Morgan's chief executive, Sandy Warner, and his senior staff to a link-up.