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International Business School: Module 1 - Geopolitical Risk in International Business
The International Business School is made up of 2 bookable modules:
The pandemic has accelerated the drivers of geopolitical change, entrenching the bipolar confrontation between the US and China, the reconfiguration of international supply chains and the declining commitment to international law. An increased focus on sustainability and climate change, rising inequality within and across nations, the dominance of big tech and the rise of cryptocurrencies, is rapidly shifting the global balance of power.
The objective of this course is to provide participants with a structured approach to the analysis of geopolitical risk in developed and developing markets to enable them to maximise returns on trades and investments.
Geopolitics is the leading corporate risk presenting significant board level challenges to multinational organisations.
For multinational corporations, the impact a single event or policy shift can exert on their operations, is magnified through a complex web of interrelated dependencies. The physical locations of premises, complex supply chains, geographically-mobile workforces and cyber connectivity have led to greater risk exposure emanating from the cross-border transfer of goods and currency exchange.
As the geopolitical landscape changes, so must the way in which risk leaders protect their businesses. A thorough understanding of the interlinked geopolitical risk drivers and their impacts provides a strong foundation for prevention and protection against them and is essential to maintain a competitive advantage.
- Why geopolitical risk matters
- Strategies to manage geopolitical risk
- Maximising the opportunities created by geopolitical risk
- Using geopolitical risk management strategies to competitive advantage
- Managing the geopolitical risks of the 2020s
Who Should Attend?
This course will be of most value to:
- Risk managers
- Insurance brokers and underwriters
- Traders and investors
- Investment banking analysts and associates
- Credit analysts
- Sovereign risk analysts
Day One: Understanding Geopolitical Risk and its Impact
Session 1: Country, Sovereign and Political Risk
- Country risk – structural factors, exchange rate risk, transfer risk and expropriation risk. Commodity price risk. Instability / political violence risk.
- Sovereign risk - economic structure, FX exposure, devaluation, economic default, political default, sub-sovereign risk.
- Political risk – institutional structure, separation of powers, ideology, international alliances.
Exercise (in pairs): Participants will analyse the differing causes of two major sovereign defaults for lower and higher rated sovereigns.
Session 2: Why Geopolitical Risk Matters
- Economic and political consequences of non-payment
- Global contagion and international systemic risk
- Sector specific impacts and supply chain disruption
Exercise (in syndicates): Participants will identify three geopolitical risk events that have occurred in the last 30 years and explore their economic consequences.
Session 3: Strategies to Manage Geopolitical Risk
- Exchange rate or interest rate trading, sovereign bonds, trade credit, bank lines, project finance
- Risk mitigation strategies, political risk insurance, export credit guarantees, government guarantee, deal structure
- Scaling geopolitical risk exposure with financial products
Exercise (in pairs): Participants will analyse different investment strategies given rates of return, relative risk and contrasting markets.
Session 4: Sovereign Ratings as a Risk Mitigant
- The value of sovereign ratings as a measure of a country’s credit worthiness
- Economic growth, inflation, purchasing power parity, income levels
- Foreign exchange system risk profiles
- Sovereign ratings as foretellers or precipitators of crises
Exercise (in syndicates): Participants will consider a sovereign debt crisis case study and analyse the value of sovereign risk ratings as an indicator of potential crises.
Session 5: Workshop Review
- Recap on key objectives and how these have been addressed
- Action planning points
Day Two: Practical Application of Geopolitical Risk Management Strategies
Session 1: Measuring Geopolitical Risk: AI, Big Data, Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches
- Quantitative versus qualitative approches
- Applying AI and big data in geopolitical risk ratings
- Identifying early warning signals and dealing with change
- Identifying key issues and interpreting trends in financial and economic data
- Managing disparities in quality, quantity and timeliness of data
Exercise (in syndicates): Participants will analyse a range of inputs into a risk model, including objective and subjective factors and defend their validity.
Session 2: Managing Geopolitical Risk in Fixed Asset Investments
- Mitigating the factors that heighten the vulnerability of an investment to geopolitical risk
- Identifying and managing the interests of all stakeholders in long term investments
- Determining optimum tariff pricing for utilities and infrastructure projects
Exercise (in syndicates): Participants will analyse a case study of a fixed asset investment and identify ways to enhance the geopolitical risk management strategy of the investing company.
Session 3: Understanding Culture as an Investment Risk
- Managing the challenges of cultural relativism when investing in new markets
- Navigating different investment landscapes and business practices
- Cultural expectations and global brand reputation in the social media age
Exercise (in syndicates): Participants will analyse a case study of a company that adopted a policy of cultural relativism in its international investments and the impact this exerted on its global brand reputation.
Session 4: Managing Geopolitical Risk in the 2020s
The Geopolitics of Crypto Currency and ‘Green’ Energy
Assessing cyber security as a new form of geopolitical risk
Climate change, ‘green’ energy and the reshaping of geopolitical risk
Crypto currency, decentralised finance and the global balance of power
Exercise (in pairs): Participants will complete a number of short exercises involving geopolitical risk scenarios.
Session 5: Workshop Review
- Recap on key objectives and how these have been addressed
- Action planning points
Our Tailored Learning Offering
Do you have five or more people interested in attending this course? Do you want to tailor it to meet your company’s exact requirements? If you’d like to do either of these, we can bring this course to your company’s office. You could even save up to 50% on the cost of sending delegates to a public course and dramatically increase your ROI.
If you want to run this course at a location convenient to you or if you want a completely customised learning solution, we can help.
We produce learning solutions that are completely unique to your business. We’ll guide you through the whole process, from the initial consultancy to evaluating the success of the full learning experience. Our learning specialists ensure you get the maximum return on your training investment.
We have a combined experience of over 60 years providing learning solutions to the world’s major organisations and are privileged to have contributed to their success. We view our clients as partners and focus on understanding the needs of each organisation we work with to tailor learning solutions to specific requirements.
We are proud of our record of customer satisfaction. Here is why you should choose us to help you achieve your goals and accelerate your career:
- Quality – our clients consistently rate our performance ‘excellent’ or ‘outstanding’. Our average overall score awarded to us by our clients is nine out of ten.
- Track record – 10/10 of the world’s largest banks have chosen us as there training provider and we have delivered training across the largest banks and have trained over 25,000 professionals.
- Knowledge – our 100+ strong team of industry specialist trainers are world leading financial leaders and commentators, ensuring our knowledge base is second to none.
- Reliability – if we promise it, we deliver it. We have delivered over 25,000 events both in person and online, using simultaneous translation to delegates from over 99 countries.
- Recognition – we are accredited by the British Accreditation Council and the CPD Certification Service. In an independent review by Feefo we scored 4.2/5 on service and 4.7/5 on Coursecheck
BiographyDr Elizabeth Stephens is an investment and country risk advisor and Managing Director of Geopolitical Risk Advisory, a geopolitical tech company. Elizabeth works with commercial and philanthropic clients in the development of corporate strategy and planning across a range of sectors and geographies, to effectively manage and mitigate risk. For ten years she was Head of Credit & Political Risk Advisory at JLT Specialty where she worked with some of the world’s largest commodity traders, energy companies and financial institutions across Europe, Africa and the Americas. Whilst at JLT she designed and built the World Risk Review, a country risk ratings tool that provides risk ratings and analysis for 198 territories. Elizabeth received a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics where she specialised in US foreign policy towards the Middle East. She is a guest Lecturer at London Business School, Cass Business School and Henley Business School, where she delivers Masters and Executive Education courses on a range of subjects including; Geopolitical Risk Management, Strategic Business Analytics, Supply Chain Management and Reputational Risk Management. She is a regular conference speaker and is quoted in the media, including the Financial Times and The Times and has recently appeared on Sky News, the BBC and CNC.