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Early-Stage Company Valuation
Traditional valuation approaches for non-financial businesses focus on the use of multiples or cash flow based analysis. What these techniques assume is a stability and a risk profile that is not found in the more difficult types of business to value. This leads to errors in valuation that traditional valuation tools struggle correct, indeed errors that analysts are sometimes unaware of. Assumptions about risk and profitability need to be adapted when dealing with these types of business and this advanced valuation and modelling course looks at the valuation approaches to be taken to enable participants to value companies and sectors which cannot be valued using traditional valuation techniques.
Where analysts struggle to value business correctly is at the early growth and start up stage (the Facebook stage), which would cover sectors such as technology, biotechnology and any early funding stage business. Traditional valuation tools struggle to estimate profitability (what size will the eventual market be?) and risk (will the company survive and how does risk change if it does?) The key challenges associated with such companies are discussed, the problems with traditional valuation approaches and the best valuation approach considered. Valuing rapidly growing (early-stage) companies which, depending on the geographic location, may cover technology, media, telecoms and pharmaceutical sectors. Here risk is again a problem area, but the rate and timing of the peak in growth becomes a key issue (the Apple stage).
As well as discussed some of the current issues with traditional cash flow and multiple based valuation approaches the course will cover more advanced valuation approaches such as decisions trees, simulations, scenario analysis and real option valuation. As such the course provides an “analytic toolkit” for anyone looking to value almost any type of non-financial company across a range of sectors and lifecycle stages.
Examples are provided to illustrate each issue.
Overview of valuation approaches
- Intrinsic valuation – traditional cash flow techniques
- Relative valuation – multiple based analysis
- Probabilistic valuation – scenario analysis, decision trees and simulations
- Real options valuation – additional value created through optionality
Other valuation issues
- Assessing risk – the risky risk free rate and other current valuation issues
- The economic cycle – incorporating macro-economic factors into a valuation
Valuing early stage and start-up companies and sectorsA life cycle view of start-up companies
- Start-up companies in context
- The key challenges with start-up companies
- Visibility – a key valuation challenge
- How to value existing assets in a start-up
- Cash burn and the effect on existing assets
- The future of the business – high growth and growth phases
- Assessing growth rates - the key component of value
- Adjusting risk for small fast growing businesses
- Discount rates for pure equity financed businesses
- When to calculate terminal value
- Reducing the dependence on terminal value
- Value of equity claims
- Assessing equity claims in a early stage business
- Problems with start-up multiple analysis
- Determining the starting point – revenue multiples vs profitability multiples
- Which year? – Determining stability for multiple calculation and techniques for “normalising” multiples vs the sector
Valuing a start-up or early stage business in practice
- Main errors made in valuing early stage businesses
- Macro vs micro analysis
- Product success and market share
- Bottom up approach to a valuatio
- Capacity capability
- Estimating and using different discount rate
- The use of phased discount rate
- Discount rates as maturity approaches
- Ensuring consistency in a valuation
- Private and public multiples
- Option to expand valuatio
- How optionality affects valuation
A life cycle view of rapid growth companies
Valuing rapid growth companies and sectors
- The rapid growth company in context
- How are growth companies different?
- How historic numbers are misleading
- How asset life may develop in the high growth phase
- How existing assets differ in a rapid growth business
- Where the bulk of value is created by a rapid growth company – the growth phase
- Capital intensity and the rapid growth business
- The development of risk during the growth phase
- The stage at which a terminal value should be calculated for a rapid growth business
- The differing equity claims in a rapid growth business
- Participation by different equity holders
- Peer groups
- Finding similar growth businesses – different sectors?
- Risk measures – adapting a multiple analysis for risk
- Main errors made in valuing growth businesses
- Dealing with immature markets
- Assessing product cycles
- Ability to execute – the key driver
Our Tailored Learning Offering
Do you have five or more people interested in attending this course? Do you want to tailor it to meet your company’s exact requirements? If you’d like to do either of these, we can bring this course to your company’s office. You could even save up to 50% on the cost of sending delegates to a public course and dramatically increase your ROI.
If you want to run this course at a location convenient to you or if you want a completely customised learning solution, we can help.
We produce learning solutions that are completely unique to your business. We’ll guide you through the whole process, from the initial consultancy to evaluating the success of the full learning experience. Our learning specialists ensure you get the maximum return on your training investment.
We have a combined experience of over 60 years providing learning solutions to the world’s major organisations and are privileged to have contributed to their success. We view our clients as partners and focus on understanding the needs of each organisation we work with to tailor learning solutions to specific requirements.
We are proud of our record of customer satisfaction. Here is why you should choose us to help you achieve your goals and accelerate your career:
- Quality – our clients consistently rate our performance ‘excellent’ or ‘outstanding’. Our average overall score awarded to us by our clients is nine out of ten.
- Track record – we have delivered training solutions for 95% of worlds’ top 100 banks and have trained over 250,000 professionals.
- Knowledge – our 150 strong team of industry specialist trainers are world leading financial leaders and commentators, ensuring our knowledge base is second to none.
- Reliability – if we promise it, we deliver it. We have delivered over 20,000 events both in person and online, using simultaneous translation to delegates from over 180 countries.
- Recognition – we are accredited by the British Accreditation Council and the CPD Certification Service. In an independent review by Feefo we scored 96% on service and 95% on product
- I draw on my experience as the former Head of European Equity team at HSBC and Head of UK Equity Team at Scottish Widows to deliver impactful training that helps financial practitioners excel in their roles.
BiographyThe Course Instructor is a qualified chartered accountant, who began his career as an auditor for Grant Thornton International. He moved to Ernst & Young as a senior manager in the corporate advisory team in 1986, working on major acquisitions, disposals, IPOs and insolvency/restructuring transactions. In 1989 he joined Threadneedle Asset Management as an analyst, becoming a fund manager specialising in income funds in 1991. He achieved top quartile performance and was a member of the team that won the Sunday Times Unit Trust Group of the year award in 1992. In 1996 he joined Scottish Widows Investment Partnership (“SWIP”) as a director in the UK Equity team and then head of UK Equities, again specialising in come funds. In 2000 he was appointed head of UK Equities on the merger of Hill Samuel Asset Management and SWIP and he led the integration of the UK Equity teams. He covered a variety of industrial sectors as an analyst, and was recognised as a top five buy side banking analyst by Reuters. In 2001 he joined HSBC Asset Management as European Head of Equity Research, managing a team of analysts in Paris and London tasked with developing a new research team and research process. He built the team in London and led the integration of the analyst team based in Dusseldorf, introducing a cash flow based corporate valuation process. In 2004 he was appointed Global Head of Equity Research, responsible for 60 global equity research analysts and 40 global credit analysts. He developed a global valuation and research process, training local analysts in Europe, the US and Asia in its use. In his time at HSBC he specialised in analysing the global resources sector. In 2006 he joined a professional training company as the head of investment banking and investment management. He managed a team of 12 trainers and built a blue chip customer base. His experience included managing major graduate programmes for investment banking, investment management and private wealth clients, training graduate to managing director level participants and advising clients on their training requirements for accountancy, corporate finance and valuation, investment management and private wealth training. In his role as a chartered accountant he was a member of the committee advising the UK Accounting Standards Board on corporate reporting via the implementation of the Operating and Financial Review. He is a freelance writer for various investment publications and provides accounting, corporate finance and investment management advice to companies on a freelance basis. His clients have included HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Allen & Overy, JP Morgan, Barclays Bank, Barclays Wealth, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Standard Chartered, Ernst & Young, Price Waterhouse and Schroders.
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