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International Project Finance and Cashflow Modeling

Learn to analyse and model qualitative and quantitative project risks
  • Program Objectives

    This five day program is designed to help participants structure and evaluate project financing transactions. Reviewing examples of transactions selected from around the world, attendees will become familiar with the latest techniques and innovative approaches to funding a wide variety of projects. Sectors covered include oil and gas, energy, water, transport, and social infrastructure.

    On the last day of the program participants will learn how to build a cashflow model for a project transaction.

    Heavy emphasis is placed upon case studies. Pre-reading is mandatory and sent in advance. Home reading is expected each evening in preparation for the following day.


    Program Description

    The program takes place over five days:

    • Day One: Sets the stage with a rapid paced discussion of key aspects of project finance structuring. Participants will learn to approach project financing requests by breaking the analysis into component parts. They will be given a roadmap for assembling market information, making qualitative judgments, developing key agreements and conducting thorough quantitative financial analysis. Elements specific to energy projects will be highlighted on Day 1 using a pipeline project.

    • Day Two: Continues the discussion from Day 1 and looking at midstream energy projects, including a gas processing facility used as a case study. Export Credit Agency Finance is part of the financing mix.

    • Day Three: Highlights debt provider considerations and compares bank lender requirements with those of capital market investors. Examples are used of power projects funded in both markets.

    • Day Four: Takes an in-depth look at funding transportation infrastructure including roads, bridges, ports, and airports. Case studies are used to demonstrate the special risks characteristic of projects that are exposed to potentially volatile market-based revenues. Participants also consider infrastructure traditionally funded by the public sector. E.g., schools, hospitals, courthouses, prisons etc. This final day includes a self-test as part of the course wrap-up.

    • Day Five: The program’s final day builds on the first four. Participants will look more closely at cash flow analysis of a project while constructing a model for an LNG facility. They will develop and assess a wide range of scenarios in order to test a limited-recourse financing package for debt capacity and investment suitability.

  • This portion of the program teaches participants to analyze project financing and investment opportunities. Delegates will learn to structure project transactions to minimize risks and improve the prospects for future strong performance.

    Day One
    Themes: Structuring Projects and Creating a Security Package; Efficient Sources of Finance

     

     

    Overview
    • How Have the Markets Developed? Where are the Projects?
    • Array of Project Finance Approaches and Players
    • Identifying and Allocating Risk
    • What can go wrong?

    Examples
    • How Oil and Gas Projects Structure Led to Other Transactions
    • Power, Combined with Water Desalination
    • Renewable Energy
    • Transport Projects
    • PPP Approaches to Social Infrastructure

    Projects and Risk Identification
    • Risks in development
    • Construction and operating risks
    • Feedstock and supply
    • Market risks
    • Environmental risks
    • Financial risks
    • Political and regulatory

    Case Example: Financing a Pipeline
    • How is risk allocated? How are political considerations treated? What are key risks to creditors?

     

    End of Day One


    Day Two
    Themes: Legal Issues in Projects; Bank Debt and ECAs; Energy Sector

     

    Legal Issues in Project Finance
    • Legal environment and regulatory conditions
    • Commercial points and legal points in various projects
    • SPV Structures
    • Key contractual agreements
    • Developing a term sheet
      • Limiting recourse
      • Tax gross up issues
      • Market interruption
      • Reps and warranties
      • Conditions precedent
      • Covenants including MAC clauses
    • Hedging requirements

    Club Loans and Syndicated Loan Financing
    • What security do banks want?
    • Market flex clauses and “Mini-perms”
    • Inter-creditor issues
    • Credit Enhancement and Co-financing with ECAs

    Case Study: Financing a Fertilizer Plant
    • Risk allocation among various project participants to finance and construct a plant. Testing the project's cash flows under varying scenarios with a cash-flow simulation model. What are acceptable DSCR levels? What returns does equity look for? The role of Export Credit Agencies in the funding mix.

    End of Day Two


    Day Three
    Themes: Sources of Finance: Accessing Capital Markets


    Accessing Capital Markets
    • Comparing bond issuance to bank loans
    • Nature of investors, timing and flexibility
    • Project size and relative cost
    • Security requirements
    • Negative arbitrage issues
    • Due diligence process / road shows
    • Rating Agency Considerations
    • Private Risk Insurers and Monoline Insurers

    Electricity Markets
    • Market forces and the effect on electrical supply
    • Fragmentation of electricity generation
    • Generating, Transmission, Distribution
    • Merchant Power Plants (MPPs)
    • Growth of the Renewables Market
    • Project economics
    • What is driving the investment?
    • Government incentives

    Case Study: Financing Electricity Generation
    • Risk allocation among various project participants to finance and construct a power plant. Testing the project's cash flows under varying scenarios with a cash-flow simulation model. What are acceptable DSCR levels? What returns does equity look for

     

    End of Day Three  

     

    Day Four

    Themes: Transportation Projects and Other


    Transport Projects and the Origins of PPP Structures
    • Evolving Roles for the Public and Private Sector
    • Different Structures and Degrees of Private Participation
    • Outright and partial government ownership
    • Long-term Concessions and DBFO
    • Evaluating Market Risk
    • Roads, Bridges, Airports, Ports and Other

    Case Study: Airport, Port or Road Finance; Negotiating a Term Sheet
    • Discussion will focus on project risks, their allocation through contracts, the mix of financing, cash flow projections, as well as rating agency considerations in evaluating the proposed financing structure.

     

    Other Social Infrastructure
    • Financing Hospitals, Schools, Prisons, Others
    • Concessions and Contract Terms
    • Risk Evaluation and Allocation
    • Monitoring Requirements

    Case Example: Hospital Upgrade

    End of Day Four


    Day Five
    Theme: Cashflow Modeling for Projects


    In this final day participants will build a model for an LNG facility. They will assess a wide range of scenarios in order to test a limited-recourse financing package for debt capacity and investment suitability.

    Cashflow Modeling Approaches
    • Financial modeling and cash flow analysis
    • The view of lenders: DSCR and PV coverage
    • Equity considerations: IRR and NPV
    • Approaches to evaluating the cost of capital
    • Project returns vs. equity returns
    • Forecasting techniques and limitations

    Modeling Workshop Overview: Objectives and Approaches
    • Constructing a Model / Common Myths
    • Variations by Project Type

    Structuring the Model / Acquiring Data to Create a Cashflow Statement
    • Developing an Assumptions Page
    • Volume and Pricing Considerations
    • Construction Costs and Timing
    • Operating Cost, Plant Capacity Usage, Fixed and Variable Costs
    • Reinvestment, Plant Expansion, Productivity Shifts

    Developing the Profit and Loss and Balance Sheet
    • Factoring in Reserves
    • Considering Currencies
    • Tax Calculations

    Financing Section
    • Equity First or Pro Rata
    • Manually Designed Equity Subscription
    • Draw-down of Debt Linked to Specific Contracts or Expenditures
      • or in a Hierarchy
    • Sculpting Debt

    Ratios and Sensitivity Analysis: Objectives and Limitations
    • Measuring Debt Capacity and Investor Return
    • Using Modeling Output for Initial Project Vetting
    • Supporting on-going Negotiations

    Summary and Wrap-up of Modeling Workshop

    Self-test


    End of Program

  • Our Tailored Learning Offering

    Do you have five or more people interested in attending this course? Do you want to tailor it to meet your company’s exact requirements? If you’d like to do either of these, we can bring this course to your company’s office. You could even save up to 50% on the cost of sending delegates to a public course and dramatically increase your ROI.

    If you want to run this course at a location convenient to you or if you want a completely customised learning solution, we can help.

    We produce learning solutions that are completely unique to your business. We’ll guide you through the whole process, from the initial consultancy to evaluating the success of the full learning experience. Our learning specialists ensure you get the maximum return on your training investment.

  • We have a combined experience of over 60 years providing learning solutions to the world’s major organisations and are privileged to have contributed to their success. We view our clients as partners and focus on understanding the needs of each organisation we work with to tailor learning solutions to specific requirements.

    We are proud of our record of customer satisfaction. Here is why you should choose us to help you achieve your goals and accelerate your career:

    • Quality – our clients consistently rate our performance ‘excellent’ or ‘outstanding’. Our average overall score awarded to us by our clients is nine out of ten.
    • Track record – 10/10 of the world’s largest banks have chosen us as there training provider and we have delivered training across the largest banks and have trained over 25,000 professionals.
    • Knowledge – our 100+ strong team of industry specialist trainers are world leading financial leaders and commentators, ensuring our knowledge base is second to none.
    • Reliability – if we promise it, we deliver it. We have delivered over 25,000 events both in person and online, using simultaneous translation to delegates from over 99 countries.
    • Recognition – we are accredited by the British Accreditation Council and the CPD Certification Service. In an independent review by Feefo we scored 4.2/5 on service and 4.7/5 on Coursecheck
This course can be run as an In-house or Tailored Learning programme

Instructor

  • Margaret (Meg) Osius

    • Equipping stakeholders to respond rapidly to the exploding array of global project finance opportunities, is the objective of my courses. We show participants numerous successful - and troubled – project transactions. If they return to the office armed with concepts and a framework for analysis that they can apply to their own portfolios, we’ve met our goal.

    Biography

    Meg Osius designs and delivers executive level training sessions and provides advisory services to a wide variety of organizations worldwide. Specializing in international project finance, capital markets, and risk management, she works with corporate investors, private and development banks, equipment suppliers, law firms etc., to structure viable financing packages for green-field projects and facility upgrades in the power, oil and gas, transport, social services and telecom sectors. Prior to establishing her own firm Meg was a banker at JP Morgan Chase Bank where she originated international project transactions and advised clients on risk management. Previously she was Chair of the Technical Advisory Panel of the Public Private Infrastructure Advancement Fund (PPIAF) managed by the World Bank, and a Director of British Caribbean Bank and WIHL Holdings. The latter managed a portfolio of touristic projects and a commercial port. She has had extensive experience in real estate workout and debt recovery.Meg has published articles in the business press and co-authored guides covering international project finance, trade and export finance, foreign exchange, and financial futures, besides approaches to financial analysis in emerging markets. She is a primary speaker in a video series on Sound Banking Principles created by the World Bank. Her M.B.A. is from INSEAD, the European Institute of Business Administration. She received a B.A. degree from Princeton University.