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An Introduction to Upstream Petroleum Economics & Risk Analysis

Master the issues of upstream petroleum economics & risk analysis
  • Course Content

    To truly understand how projects are valued and investment decisions are made, professionals working in the upstream industry must have detailed and up-to-date knowledge of petroleum economics and risk analysis.

    This practical introductory training course is designed to help you understand the theories and methods used to value oil and gas projects and make decisions where conditions are far from certain.

    A particularly useful learning experience for those in technical and commercial disciplines, the course will present the fundamental aspects of discounted Cashflow analysis and risk analysis, as well as examining fiscal regimes, cost estimating, production profiles and commodity pricing.

    By the end of the course you will have a solid understanding of the issues involved, the ability to build your own economic models, and confidence in interpreting the results of your analysis.

    Attend this interactive and practical course and:
    • Understand the theory of upstream petroleum economics based on discounted Cashflow
    • Learn how to calculate with confidence the key economic metrics used in investment decision making
    • Appreciate the geological and engineering inputs to the Cashflow model
    • Understand oil and gas pricing and forecasting
    • Appreciate the diversity of fiscal systems worldwide
    • Build Excel-based economic models for both tax/royalty and production sharing contract fiscal systems
    • Interpret the economic results and quantify the risks so as to put values to prospects, fields and companies
    • Select the optimum projects and development options for your company


    The course will be delivered through a series presentations, project examples and hands-on Excel modelling workshops that will reinforce your understanding of the subject. The practical exercises in the workshops will cover Cashflow and fiscal modelling and explore prospect evaluation.

    Who should attend?
    This course is particularly beneficial for people working in roles such as:
    • Petroleum economists
    • Business development managers
    • Project managers
    • Lawyers 
    • Financial analysts
    • Accountants and auditors
    • Government officials


    Note - A good level of spoken and written English is required to attend this course. Delegates should be of an intermediate standard in English at a minimum. Please refer to the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages - as a guide the level required is B2. 

  • Agenda

    Day 1

    Cash flow analysis
    • What is Petroleum Economics?
    • Cash flow equations
    • Accounting for inflation
    • Calculating the economic cut-off
    • Economic analysis v. corporate accounting

    Accounting for the time value of money
    • The time value of money, compounding & discounting
    • Discount rate, discount factor & discount method
    • Calculating the discount rate

    Economic metrics
    • General metrics (Breakeven, Payback, Exposure)
    • Value and return metrics (e.g. NPV, IRR, DPIR)
    • Per barrel and other metrics and KPIs
    • Making development & investment decisions

    Workshop: Pre-tax cash flow model
    • Calculating revenues
    • Accounting for inflation
    • Adjusting for the economic cut-off
    • Including the abandonment costs

    Day 2

    Cost, scheduling and tariffs
    • Capital, operating, & abandonment Costs
    • Project schedules
    • Tariffs

    Fiscal Regimes
    • Overview
    • Royalty & taxation systems
    • Production sharing contracts
    • Risk service contracts

    Workshop: The Taxation and Tariff Case Study
    • Introduction to the gas field case study
    • Establishing the economic model framework, structure & calculation flows
    • Understanding the taxation structure & algorithms
    • Determining the field, economic & fiscal data and building the input decks
    • Step by step construction and audit of the taxation model
    • Running the economic cases & evaluating the results

    Day 3

    Production profiles and reserves classification
    • Resources, reserves, production and sales profiles
    • SPE and SEC reserves classification systems

    Oil and gas prices and other economic inputs
    • Oil and condensate pricing & forecasting
    • Gas & LNG pricing & forecasting
    • Inflation, cost escalation
    • Interest Rates & exchange rates

    Workshop: The PSC Case Study
    • Introduction to the oil field PSC case study
    • Establishing the economic model framework, structure & calculation flows
    • Understanding the PSC fiscal structure & algorithms
    • Determining the field, economic & fiscal data and building the input decks
    • Step by step construction and audit of the PSC model
    • Running the economic cases & evaluating the results

    Day 4

    Consolidation and incremental analysis

    Types of interest (working, royalty and carried interests)

    Accounting for risk and uncertainty
    • Risk versus uncertainty
    • Sensitivity analysis
    • Scenario analysis
    • Decision trees
    • Monte Carlo simulation

    Proprietary software solutions

    Workshop: The Oil Prospect Case Study
    • Establishment of the prospect commercial reserves distribution
    • Calculation of the success case expected value and the prospect EMV
    • Drill or no-drill decision?

  • Our Tailored Learning Offering

    Do you have five or more people interested in attending this course? Do you want to tailor it to meet your company’s exact requirements? If you’d like to do either of these, we can bring this course to your company’s office. You could even save up to 50% on the cost of sending delegates to a public course and dramatically increase your ROI.

    If you want to run this course at a location convenient to you or if you want a completely customised learning solution, we can help.

    We produce learning solutions that are completely unique to your business. We’ll guide you through the whole process, from the initial consultancy to evaluating the success of the full learning experience. Our learning specialists ensure you get the maximum return on your training investment.

  • We have a combined experience of over 60 years providing learning solutions to the world’s major organisations and are privileged to have contributed to their success. We view our clients as partners and focus on understanding the needs of each organisation we work with to tailor learning solutions to specific requirements.

    We are proud of our record of customer satisfaction. Here is why you should choose us to help you achieve your goals and accelerate your career:

    • Quality – our clients consistently rate our performance ‘excellent’ or ‘outstanding’. Our average overall score awarded to us by our clients is nine out of ten.
    • Track record – 10/10 of the world’s largest banks have chosen us as there training provider and we have delivered training across the largest banks and have trained over 25,000 professionals.
    • Knowledge – our 100+ strong team of industry specialist trainers are world leading financial leaders and commentators, ensuring our knowledge base is second to none.
    • Reliability – if we promise it, we deliver it. We have delivered over 25,000 events both in person and online, using simultaneous translation to delegates from over 99 countries.
    • Recognition – we are accredited by the British Accreditation Council and the CPD Certification Service. In an independent review by Feefo we scored 4.2/5 on service and 4.7/5 on Coursecheck
This course can be run as an In-house or Tailored Learning programme


  • Peter Wright

    High levels of upfront capital and significant uncertainties make the oil industry a unique challenge for investors; there is no substitute for robust and consistent economic analysis of opportunities


    With over 20 years' hands-on experience as a Petroleum Economist in the upstream oil and gas industry, Peter has a detailed understanding of the technical and financial aspects of the industry as well as the key determinants of project value and risk. He leverages his in-depth experience of numerous fiscal jurisdictions to deliver highly relevant and practical training around the world.Peter is currently the Principal Petroleum Economist at CGG, a leading global geoscience company, where he is responsible for managing and delivering economic and commercial consulting projects. These include Competent Persons Reports (CPRs) for stock market listings, reserve audits and data room evaluations for asset acquisitions, and fiscal design and market studies for government organisations.Previously, he worked as an independent Petroleum Economist engaging in all aspects of petroleum economics including commercial evaluations, transaction support, economic and financial modelling, cost estimating and budgeting and forecasting. Projects evaluated comprised conventional onshore and offshore oil and gas fields, shale oil and gas, carbon capture, gas storage, pipeline infrastructure, oil field rehabilitation, and refinery developments. Prior to working as an independent consultant, Peter was Director/Petroleum Economist at Indeva Energy Consultants and a Project Engineer at Doris Engineering in Paris. He has an MBA from the Cranfield School of Management and a degree in engineering from Cambridge and is a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE).



The course will take place at a Central London hotel.

The map attached details some of our most frequently used venues

If you need help booking accommodation for your visit, please contact and one of our partners will help you get the best rate possible.