March 2012
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LATEST ARTICLES
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Credit Suisse’s Q4 loss and disappointing return for 2011 says as much about the state of the industry as it does about the bank.
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Even as Iceland’s economy improves, moves to dismiss the country’s bank regulator reveal continuing institutional weakness.
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Kuwait is perhaps not the first country investors might think of as vulnerable to a sovereign debt crisis. One of the world’s biggest oil producers, its gross external public-sector assets amounted to some 200% of GDP at the end of the last fiscal year, according to Moody’s. Nevertheless, Kuwait’s central bank governor of 25 years standing resigned last month – apparently over government spending. In comments to Kuwait’s state news agency, the former governor, Sheikh Salem Abdulaziz Al Sabah, said: "The challenge of current local economic conditions and forecast growth in public expenditure has reached a point where it would prevent the [Kuwaiti central bank] from carrying out its duties as stated in the bill of its establishment."
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There’s a new demographic pounding the pavements of Wall Street: mothers. The area of Lower Manhattan, home to Wall Street, is now the baby-making capital of New York City. According to the Department of City Planning, the area has the highest birth rate across the borough of Manhattan and beats stroller heavens such as Park Slope in Brooklyn as now the trendiest place to have babies. In 2010, 1,086 babies were born near Wall Street – up 12% on 2009. More babies are on their way. According to Downtown Alliance’s latest report, 40% of childless households in Lower Manhattan are planning to have children within the next three years, and by 2013 the population of the area is expected to reach 60,000 – more than double that of 10 years ago.
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Research from LCH Investments, published at the end of last month, makes it clear that getting the big macro calls right is the key to performance.
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BlackRock chose February 29 to launch what it describes as a multi-faceted global initiative to offer investors the chance to build "the more dynamic and more diverse portfolios that these times require".
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It could be nine months between Brazil’s last IPO and its next, leading investors to urge banks to do a better job of reining in candidates’ pricing expectations.
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When RBS reported fourth-quarter 2011 results even worse than the already dire consensus estimates of analysts, the tedious row over its investment bankers’ bonuses broke out again in the UK media, alongside detailed estimates of just how much money UK taxpayers have lost by investing in the bank’s equity.
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Emerging market Eurobond issuance is on the up. But bankers in emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa – including in Russia – might be disappointed.
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Deutsche Bank is not alone in discovering that a dash for assets can lead to a lingering headache.
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In his first interview as new CFO of Embraer, Paulo Penido Marques says the company is well placed to diversify and grow with its current balance sheet – but he is tempted by the rates on offer in the international debt capital market to pre-fund some 2012 capex.
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The strongest support for a bullish view of growth comes from US prospects. However, caution is warranted even here. Bearishness seems appropriate elsewhere...
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Transelectrica on the block; Pricing ‘key to success’
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As of late February Brazil was yet to see its first IPO of 2012, leading ECM bankers to ponder what was needed to get an issuer successfully to market.
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A dynamic economy is transforming the country. The central bank governor predicts good times ahead for a nation rich in resources and competitive in manufacturing.
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After flying nearly 5,000 miles for a series of interviews, having researched topics, deals and interviewees, Euromoney wrote an in-depth article about the characteristics of one of the many markets we cover. We had access to some of the most senior bankers in the market who told us exactly what they thought of the current problems, dislocations and possible remedies. Specific deals were discussed – successes and failures – and the lessons for peers and investors.
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Primary issuance in Latin American DCM is enjoying unprecedented liquidity, supply and deal volumes. The region is leading the 2012 emerging market fixed-income resurgence, and the battle for power between issuers and investors is developing into a fascinating contest.
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Expansion in the region to take advantage of rapid economic growth and the opening of operations elsewhere in the world are core themes among Latin America’s best-managed companies.
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"I had a discussion with a very senior regulator recently who told me: ‘Look, I know we’ve gone too far too fast on some of this and that we’ve made some errors, but I’m afraid I don’t know how to stop this process.’ Now that’s quite scary"
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Eurobond investors seek clarity on oil revenues; Gabon follows with new sovereign fund
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The big players continue to dominate a profitable business line. But some investors are looking to challenge their hegemony by moving into market making as well as proprietary risk taking.
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BTMU expands FX business outside Japan; Strong yen boosts Japanese M&A flow
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Local firms are making the most of the purge of bad debts from the system and the opportunities that efforts to indiginize the oil industry offer.
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US corporate bond issuance down; Hopes for Volcker Rule rewording
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Regional resolution legislation put back; Calls for bad banks grow
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Banks told to raise buffers; Weaker banks dependent on ECB
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More Chinese companies repatriate; Shanda Interactive ‘to list subsidiary’
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Derivatives dominance spells doom; Mifid undermines traditional model
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AUD, CAD, NOK, SEK on precipice; Risk of value reversal
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Ronald Reagan once joked that the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Wall Street traders tend to share the view that the business of profiting from capital flows works best with minimal interference, but the government in the form of the Federal Reserve recently gave the moribund market in mortgage-backed securities a big boost.
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Analysts estimate $12 billion of bond issues; But Chávez’s health puts candidature in doubt
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There is no doubt that the ECB’s December three-year long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) auction was the key factor in taking the likelihood of a liquidity-driven bank funding crisis off the table in Europe.
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IOF tax blamed for fall in Bovespa; Brazil ‘must stop jerry-rigging’
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Permission after WTO complaint; But why Citi before HSBC?
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The big players continue to dominate a profitable business line. But some investors are looking to challenge their hegemony by moving into market making as well as proprietary risk taking.
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New deals spur CNH market development; Structural issues remain
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Tighter rules on imports and capital outflows; Potential export growth being stymied
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It’s been a good start to the year for Asian debt capital markets. Sovereigns have issued, high yield is back. But will the deal flow continue to rise?
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All economic indicators suggest the country is a global growth market. Except one: its capital markets are small and underdeveloped. Bankers bemoan a lack of investors; investors say there are not enough products. A new stock exchange head aims to break the impasse. Could SMEs bring the market out of its shell?
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Facebook’s pending multi-billion dollar IPO is raising the spectre of a new tech bubble. Bankers argue that today’s tech and social media boom is different to that of the late 1990s. But the competition for mandates is more pressing than ever.
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Bolivia is preparing to issue a $500 million international bond, primarily as a statement about the strengthening of the country’s finances.
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Some have called the markets’ punishment of Portugal unfair – after all, it has kept up its side of the bargain with the troika – but NPLs continue to dog the banks. Could the struggle to find a solution at home come from opportunities abroad?
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The market for funding Europe’s banks is becoming ever more dysfunctional. The ECB continues to amass ever-greater volumes of ABS as desperate banks scramble to pledge it against cheap funding. Could this dynamic push ABS to be rehabilitated from the source of all evil to the font of desperately needed liquidity?
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By piling up the burden on banks, regulators have started a shrinking of the banking industry that they can no longer control and that markets are accelerating. This threatens the real economy, and market participants want to delay and review of the new rules. Regulators are divided. Some want to pause, most want to press on, but they are all united in their desire for one thing: not to take any blame.
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Credit Suisse maintained its reputation for bonus structure creativity when times are tough with its recent move to make payments to some staff in the form of bonds linked to its own derivatives counterparty exposure. The paper will offer healthy coupons of 5% in Swiss francs or 6.5% in dollars, but without the upside offered by the original Partner Asset Facility (as it was dubbed) from 2008, which delivered a return of 70% by giving staff exposure to toxic mortgage and high-yield debt assets that had collapsed in price but later recovered value.
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Corporates sweep out cash ‘every evening’; Banks respond to clients to relocate deposits
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Deals are more than numbers and synergies – they’re about the people involved. If the Glencore and Xstrata deal goes through, it will have a big effect on the M&A league tables but it might also stumble over a regulatory fence on the way. Abigail Hofman dissects the possible creation of a $90 billion conglomerate