Euromoney Belt and Road Results Index: Q1 2020

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By:
Jeremy Weltman
Published on:

The Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) combines International Monetary Fund (IMF) GDP figures with investment climate (IC) scores sourced from economists and political experts who ranked countries on the Euromoney Country Risk platform. The index therefore combines qualitative, crowd-sourced opinion with quantitative data. Using these sources EBRI aims to provide a clear and credible index representing the politico-economic environment and investment climate.

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Q1 2020 Results Summary

In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, the Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) Q1 results are showing fewer countries with values larger than 100.

These countries comprise the first three (of five) categories, or tiers with rising GDP and/or improving investor climates since the EBRI’s inception in 2016. 

This number is now 49, down from 52 in Q4 2019, with the Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Middle East index values falling in Q1. 

Africa bucked the trend by being less affected by infections, death rates and economic outcomes, comparatively speaking, to date. Asia is also showing improvement overall, despite the Q1 setback, and is the only world region with a value above 100. 

Of the 40 countries with lower EBRI values since Q4, many are higher-risk borrowers with sub-investment grade credit ratings, highlighting the debt-repayment risks associated with the project. 

Among them is Iran, falling from tier three to tier five due to the negative oil shock, the pandemic, geopolitics and a weak economy to start with, weighed down by sanctions.

Nepal, the Maldives, Turkmenistan, Montenegro and Belarus have higher index values. However, Estonia, Israel, Albania, Bulgaria and Mongolia are down from tier two to tier three, and Croatia, Afghanistan, Malaysia and Lebanon from tier three to tier four.

In total, 68 countries are categorized by changes in their investor climates and/or GDP since China’s Belt & Road Initiative was inaugurated in 2013; only Syria is excluded due to lack of data.

For more detailed results and the methodology used, click below:

Quarterly Result: Q1 2020

EBRI Article: Q1 2020

Historical Data: Q1 2015- Q1 2020

Methodology

About EBRI

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – also known as One Belt and One Road – is a development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013. BRI is an infrastructure and trade project intended to connect China – financially and structurally – to various economic entities across Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania.

In response to the growing demand for information on the impact of this initiative, we have launched the Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI). This index provides investors and other market participants with valuable data to evaluate investment opportunities and to track changes in investment climate and GDP in the Belt and Road region. EBRI publishes new results each quarter, providing data on 68 countries from Q4 2013 to present. 

Contact us

For commercial enquiries please contact Amy Tang
Email: Amy.tang@euromoneychina.com; Tel: +86 13795313118

For research and data enquiries please contact Chen-Ta Sung
Email: chenta.sung@euromoney.com; Tel: +44 (0) 2077798752

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