The Euromoney Belt and Road Index (EBRI) provides aggregated data for BRI countries and regions across time. The aggregated values reflect the positive and negative trends in investment climate and GDP since Q4 2013.
The EBRI aggregated valueindicates the aggregated trend of the entire BRI region in terms of investment climate and GDP over time. In comparing the aggregated values of the same quarters each year, we see a clear upward trend. This trend confirms a strengthening GDP and/or investment climate in the BRI region since Q4 2013.
Euromoney Belt and Road Index Aggregated Value by Regions
Although the EBRI aggregated value exhibits a positive trend in IC and/or GDP in the BRI region as a whole, individual regions demonstrate different degrees of growth and decline. Asia in general shows a positive trend, whereas Middle East and Central and Eastern Europe both present a decline compared to Q4 2013. Africa’s aggregated values, compared with other BRI regions, has remained relatively stable since Q4 2013.
EBRI Aggregated Value Graphs for Individual Region
There are 5 African countries in the BRI region. Apart from Q2 2016, the aggregated value in Africa has not shown any notable movements since Q4 2013. The majority of movements are around +/- 3 points.
There are 24 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in the BRI region. Aggregated value in CEE region in general has shown a significant decline, from 100 to 50.73 points, since Q4 2013. There are no countries in CEE categorized as Tier 1. Although 70% of CEE countries show slight improvements in IC and/or GDP, substantial declines in Russia and Ukraine have resulted in a downward trend in CEE’s aggregated value. Compared to Q4 2013, Russia’s GDP fell almost 100% in 2016 (from 2297 $bn to 1283.162 $bn). Since then, its GDP has remained in the region of 1500 $bn. This may have been caused by a series of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and other countries (e.g. Canada, Norway and Australia). Similarly, compared to Q4 2013, GDP in Ukraine fell nearly 100% in 2015, from 179.572 $bn to 90.939 $bn. This may have been caused by loss of its largest trading partner, Russia, over the annexation of Crimea, and exacerbated by the war in Donbass since 2014.
There are 13 Middle Eastern countries in the BRI region. The aggregated value in general shows a downward trend in the Middle East, although the value increased temporarily in Q2 2014. Similarly to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), no countries from the Middle East are categorized as Tier 1. Jordan is the only country exhibiting a steady improvement IC and/or GDP. Conversely, Kuwait and Yemen are displaying a strong downward trend, having dropped 30%-35% since 2016.