The material on this site is for financial institutions, professional investors and their professional advisers. It is for information only. Please read our Terms & Conditions, Privacy Policy and Cookies before using this site. Please see our Subscription Terms and Conditions.

All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws. © 2022 Euromoney, a part of the Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.

Bond Outlook February 4th

One month into 2009 and the world seems to have reached a fork in the road: either some positive fruits of the many rescue packages will start to appear, or the recession will really worsen and turn into a depression.

If any one issue will determine which way the economy now heads it is the role of protectionism. Historians should remind politicians over and over again that the Great Depression of the 1930s was made much more severe, even caused by, trade protectionism (which started in the U.S.A. and was consequently implemented by the other industrialised nations). That risk is ever present and is now associated with credit protectionism. Investment flows are now also under threat causing the risk of what Gordon Brown calls "deglobalisation", which will be a major theme at the forthcoming G20 conference.

The best way to avert both types of protectionism is for the stimulation packages to show some signs of success. Whilst we see some early signs, we admit that only our optimism leads us to believe such packages will be the panacea everybody hopes them to be.

  • While US house prices are still falling in the USA, sales of existing homes are picking up as a result of the greater affordability (lower prices and financing costs)
  • US television is carrying advertisements for mortgages at 4.6%,

You have reached premium content. Please log in to continue reading.

Read beyond the headlines with Euromoney

For over 50 years, our readers have looked to Euromoney to stay informed about the issues that matter in the international banking and financial markets. Find out more about our different levels of access below.


Unlimited access to and

Expert comment, long reads and in-depth analysis interviews with senior finance professionals

Access the results of our market-leading annual surveys across core financial services

Access the results of our annual awards, including the world-renowned Awards for Excellence

Your print copy of Euromoney magazine delivered monthly

£73.75 per month

Billed Annually


Unlimited access to and, including our top stories, long reads, expert analysis, and the results of our annual surveys and awards

Sign up to any of our newsletters, curated by our editors


Already a user?

We use cookies to provide a personalized site experience.
By continuing to use & browse the site you agree to our Privacy Policy.
I agree