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Banking

Reuters poll: MC to hike base rate by 25bps on Nov 25.

Reuters poll: MC to hike base rate by 25bps on Nov 25. The Monetary Council (MC) will hike the base rate by 25bps to 8.25% at its sitting on Monday (Nov 20), according to the consensus forecast of analysts polled by Reuters . Out of the 23 respondents, 14 shared that view, while the remaining 9 said that rates would be put on hold. The median forecast of the analysts showed that the base rate would peak at 8.25%, which is 25bps below the median forecast in the October’s Reuters monthly poll. We recall that at the last rate-setting meeting the MC discussed 3 options – on hold, 25bps and 50bps and decided on the middle variant. There are all preconditions that another heated session will take place on Monday. On hand the “hawks” would point to accelerating headline and core inflation (ay 6.3% and 4.4% in November, respectively), while the “doves” will put forward the recent strengthening of the forint, lower-than-expected first estimate on Q3 GDP as well as moderation in wage inflation after August’s surge.

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