The material on this site is for financial institutions, professional investors and their professional advisers. It is for information only. Please read our Terms & Conditions, Privacy Policy and Cookies before using this site. Please see our Subscription Terms and Conditions.

All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws. © 2022 Euromoney, a part of the Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.

Wilko factor puts boot into Macquarie


Most bankers would have said the stakes were high enough at the Rugby World Cup final between bitter rivals Australia and England in Sydney. But that was not the case with Aussie investment bank Macquarie. It upped the ante by publishing research confidently predicting a home victory, entitled "Rugby World Cup - quant style - Why the Wallabies will win".

Quant analyst Raelene de Souza and team attempted to apply statistical analysis to the match outcome. Using a "multi-factor model", she crunched seven determinants including betting trends, past results, and the weather forecast and concluded Australia would win.

"It tied in with a conference we were running as part of the World Cup. We wanted to look at how you could apply quant strategies to predicting sporting events," says de Souza. "Ninety per cent of people saw it for what it was - tongue in cheek."

In the light of England's dramatic win, de Souza admits perhaps some Australian irrational exuberance crept into an otherwise workmanlike piece. In particular, predicting the weather five days out as "likely to be similar, if not warmer, to Friday's warm, sunny conditions", might have been one forecast too many.

You have reached premium content. Please log in to continue reading.

Read beyond the headlines with Euromoney

For over 50 years, our readers have looked to Euromoney to stay informed about the issues that matter in the international banking and financial markets. Find out more about our different levels of access below.


Unlimited access to and

Expert comment, long reads and in-depth analysis interviews with senior finance professionals

Access the results of our market-leading annual surveys across core financial services

Access the results of our annual awards, including the world-renowned Awards for Excellence

Your print copy of Euromoney magazine delivered monthly

£73.75 per month

Billed Annually


Unlimited access to and, including our top stories, long reads, expert analysis, and the results of our annual surveys and awards

Sign up to any of our newsletters, curated by our editors


Already a user?

We use cookies to provide a personalized site experience.
By continuing to use & browse the site you agree to our Privacy Policy.
I agree