In European bond markets it's almost time to put up or shut up. As Emu draws on apace, there's increasing confidence about the emergence of a European bulge bracket. The US experience suggests it's best to be part of that bracket on day one - it will get harder and harder to barge your way in later.
For those banks that have been throwing money at the bond business, it will soon be time to assess whether their investments have paid off. "At a senior level I get the impression that a lot of people are saying this is the year. If we don't get it right we will have to re-evaluate," says a senior European banker.
But it seems that secondary market bond trading no longer occupies the privileged position it once did. As Robert Morrice, managing director and co-head of fixed income at Barclays Capital, observes: "Origination, origination, origination has been the mantra and will continue to be so."
Trading now tends to slipstream new-issue business - gone are the days when a house could run an active trading business without the accompanying primary market share.