Standing in the shadows

It’s often said that it’s far easier to predict where a market is going when you’re sitting on the sidelines. Not being directly involved in a market allows a clarity of thought lost to all but the most intellectually-detached traders. Most people find their views get distorted either by their positions or P&L.

However, my recent track record of predictions would suggest that this belief is either completely false or that I am indeed, as many who know me maintain, a bit of a Muppet.

Over the past few weeks I have voiced my opinions that the worst was over for the equity markets in general and financial stocks in particular, that it was time to buy dollars now and wear diamonds later, and that the FX market was poised to experience a sharp slowdown in volumes.

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